Tomy Crescenzi on TSC sums up the Geenspan replaced by Bernanke nicely.
As was widely rumored, Ben Bernanke has been
appointed by President Bush to succeed Alan
Greenspan as the Federal Reserve chairman.
The appointment of Bernanke, currently serving in
the White House as the chairman of the Council of
Economic Advisors, removes speculation about who
Bush would name to the role. But it will not fully
remove many key uncertainties facing the markets.
Equities, which are up sharply as of 1 p.m. EDT,
might be benefiting from the Bernanke choice
partly because it is assumed that the
famed "Greenspan put" will be rolled into
the "Bernanke put."
The Greenspan put, of course, is a safety net
based on the assumption that Fed Chairman Alan
Greenspan is ready to respond to any force that
would ultimately threaten the welfare of the stock
market. Throughout Greenspan's tenure, there are
in fact many instances where numerous factors
seemed to threaten the stock market and
Greenspan's actions helped to thwart the threat.
In 1998, for example, when the Asian financial
crisis collided with the Russian debt default to
produce harrowing times in world equity markets,
the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates three
times in a direct response.
Here is the short statement released by the Fed on
Sept. 29, 1998, following the first of the three
cuts:
The action was taken to cushion the effects on
prospective economic growth in the United States
of increasing weakness in foreign economies and of
less accommodative financial conditions
domestically. The recent changes in the global
economy and adjustments in U.S. financial markets
mean that a slightly lower federal funds rate
should now be consistent with keeping inflation
low and sustaining economic growth going forward.
Importantly, no reversal of the rate cuts would
occur until June 1999, when an overheating of U.S.
economic growth prompted the Fed to raise interest
rates. Arguably, the hikes should have occurred
sooner than that, particularly given the buoyancy
of the stock market.
Bernanke is perhaps most known for his November
2002 speech wherein he suggested a number of
possible solutions to combating deflation
pressures that were becoming more apparent at that
time. The speech, titled "Deflation: Making
Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here," included many
aggressive remedies that some could say is
evidence that a "Bernanke put" would in fact exist
under his chairmanship.
Bernanke notably suggested that the U.S. has
a "printing press -- or today its electronic
equivalent -- that allows it to produce as many
U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost."
Uncertainties Remain
The financial markets will have to contend with a
few distinct uncertainties:
# Policy statements: Greenspan writes the current
ones; how will Bernanke pen his?
# Consensus building: In a Fed study written
earlier this year, it was found that the rate of
disagreement at FOMC meetings has been much larger
than one would expect based on official dissents
alone. The study noted that the rate of
disagreement at the meetings was 30% during
Greenspan's tenure, much higher than the official
dissention rate of 7.5%. The new Fed chairman will
have to be a consensus builder if he is to keep a
Fed that is "on message" when it delivers
statements to the public.
# Flexibility: A hallmark of the Greenspan Fed has
been his flexibility. Bernanke appears to have
similar characteristics, but has advocated for
inflation targeting, which is arguably a very
rigid system.
# Public speaking: Despite the famed ways in which
Greenspan seemingly speaks out of both sides of
his mouth, Greenspan has been a master of the use
of language, which has helped him to deliver his
messages in ways that have guided the economy and
the markets well. In my eyes, Bernanke is not as
smooth in his delivery.
# Academics vs. real world: Greenspan would often
toss out the textbooks when it seemed necessary.
Can Bernanke?
# Savoir faire: Greenspan has often been seen as
knowing the right thing to do at the right time.
Only time will tell whether Bernanke has this
ability.
Whatever the case, when Bernanke dons the cap of
Fed Chairman, he will almost certainly want to
assert himself as an inflation fighter as strongly
as did his previous two predecessors, Greenspan
and Paul Volcker.