Market Overview
Ameritrade
Subscription
Services
Action Alerts PLUS
Breakout Stocks
Stocks Under $10
RealMoney
Free Trial
Don't Miss TheStreet.com's Top 10 Stories
What Are Our Celebrity Investors Saying About the
Market, Stocks and Life!
Now, enjoy the good life every week
RSSRSS FEED
PODPODCAST
100 Commission-Free Trades
E*TRADE Securities, LLC
Top Ten Stocks - 2006
Personal Finance : Jubak Journal
Email This Story Print This Story
Six Ways to Invest in the Coming Coal Boom
Page 2
The Most Read Stories From TheStreet.com
1. Google Catches Cold
2. 10 Hot Techs That Aren't Apple or Google
3. Intel: What Went Wrong
4. New Tech Deserves Some Respect
5. Cult of the Bear III: Getting to Dow 6800
Sign Up Free
And this isn't just a projection. In the past year,
30% to 40% of orders for new electricity turbines
were for coal-fueled generators; 20% to 30% were
for gas-fired turbines.
The projections for the next decade would be a huge
shift in the market. Between 1997 and 2000, the
peak of the move to natural gas for electricity
generation, natural gas accounted for 60% to 70% of
new electricity power plants. Coal's share was just
20% to 30%.
That shift means big growth for coal demand. The
U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information
Administration projects that coal consumption in
the U.S. will climb 73% to 1.9 billion short tons
in 2030, from 1.1 billion short tons in 2004.
I think that projections of the growth in coal
demand are likely to be low, too. They
underestimate the appeal of stable supplies to
utilities planning their next generation of projects.
Hey, if you want to believe that energy supplies
are stable in a world where Russia, Iran,
Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria are major
sources of energy, be my guest. Utility executives
making decisions on $1 billion capital investments
are having nightmares about supply disruption from
sources like those. The European countries are as
adamant about reducing carbon emissions as any on
earth, but coal is making a comeback even there. In
Germany, RWE started construction on a 2.2 gigawatt
coal plant last year.
I think there are two ways for investors to play
coal as the fuel of the future: You can buy the
shares of coal producers, or you can buy the shares
of the companies that make coal-burning power plants.
The Producers
My top three picks among coal producers are, in
alphabetical order, Arch Coal, Consol (CNX:NYSE -
news - research - Cramer's Take) and Peabody Energy.
Arch Coal has the most exposure in the coal sector
to improvements in pricing and supply in Wyoming's
Powder River Basin. This November's selloff among
U.S. coal stocks was a result of falling prices for
the low-sulfur coal produced from this region and
disappointing production volumes caused by the need
for repair and maintenance work at mines in the area.
Powder River Basin coal prices have stabilized
recently, and with stockpiles at utilities low
because of past production problems, sales growth
should be healthy in 2006. Prices could well move
up sharply as customers move to lock in supply for
delivery in the second half of 2006, when
production could again be constrained by
maintenance work at the mines. A reasonable target
price for December 2006 is $95 a share.