In my line of work, I often receive questions about
the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX), iPath S&P
500 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX), and all the
related offshoots. And every once in a while, I
actually answer one.
OK, just kidding -- I always try to answer. Anyway,
I got this query last week:
"I am trying to figure out why VXX was
proportionally so much higher when compared to spot
VIX values in the past? I know about the VXX
reverse split, I think I understand that VXX is
comprised of VIX futures attempting to create
30-day forward volatility exposure and everything
that goes with that.
Simple example of my question on closing price:
VIX vs VXX
I am just struggling to grasp why in the past
VXX was priced proportionally so much higher. There
is an increasing dislocation at all four dates. I
would have thought that the two would have been
more closely correlated on price in the past. Maybe
my data is just wrong.
The reason for my question is that I am trying
to figure out how best to take a long volatility
position that I can hold until VIX values
inevitably move higher back towards their long term
mean. VXX seems like the way to go; however I am
uneasy because the past correlations confuse me."
...to which I responded:
"VXX tracks a constant duration (30-day) VIX
future, not VIX itself. Since futures premiums rise
and fall, VXX can (and does) move differently from
VIX. The reason you see that ugly relationship over
time is that in order to maintain 30 days duration,
VXX must roll from a nearer-month future (or swap
equivalent) to a further out one. If you look right
now, that means that every day VXX has to sell some
May futures and buy June futures. Right here right
now, May futures trade at $17.60, and Junes trade
at $19.25. So VXX effectively loses money simply
rolling. A little bit every day. But over time,
that causes the disparity between VIX and VXX that
you see.
Now VIX futures don't always trade in contango,
but they do way more often than not -- and always
when VIX is at low levels. What's more, VXX listed
in January 2009, hence the utterly awful VXX
performance.
Bottom line is they won't correlate that
terrifically over time. That's not to say you can
never buy VXX, just think of it like you were
buying SPX puts. The SPX puts will decay in value
if nothing happens, but will still lift if SPX gets
plowed. Same effect in VXX, just different reasons.
If VIX explodes, VXX will explode too, just not to
the same degree."
That all being said....wow, those numbers do look
ugly in his table. I mean, think about it. In less
than a year and a half, VIX has lost about 33% of
its value. Meanwhile, VXX has shed about 85%. This
truly highlights a valuable point on VXX: You
simply can't hold it for an extended time frame. By
all means, use it as a trading vehicle, but don't
stay at the table too long. It's built for
short-term plays, not long-term hedges.
We also have VXZ, which tracks volatility futures
of a four-to-seven month duration. VXZ has behaved
better over time, as it does not have the same
contango problem. The VIX futures curve out that
far in time is generally quite flat. The issue,
though, is that the premiums to VIX itself often
trade quite high, so you always have risk that the
"optimism" about future VIX pops will simmer down.
Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are
those of the individual authors only, and do not
necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's
Investment Research.
Posted 14:24
1 comment
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The VXX calculation is derived from the two
nearest months of VIX futures. At the moment, this
means the May futures and the June futures. For
the sake of simplicity, I will refer to these as
the front month and second month futures.
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