There are just two top U.S. providers -- OmniVision
(OVTI:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) and
Micron Technology (MU:NYSE - news - research -
Cramer's Take) -- and both are a lot more
attractive today than they were a month ago before
the broad market selloff.
Betting on Camera Phones
OmniVision slid almost 30% in a week and a half in
the middle of May and has since recovered a bit,
which is pretty amusing in a twisted way, since
over that time its business prospects actually
improved. OmniVision's main product is an
image-sensing device called the CameraChip.
The formal name for the baseline technology is
"complementary metal oxide semiconductor," or CMOS.
But all you really need to know is that it's a
piece of metal and glass that puts a lot of
high-performance camera functionality in a tiny
package. OmniVision sells these to a long list of
customers, who put them in everything from low-cost
plastic cell phones, video games and surveillance
systems to chic titanium-body
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Omnivision will report earnings for its fiscal
fourth quarter on June 15, and I think it will come
in slightly above consensus at 39 cents a share on
$126 million in revenue. Shares should get a lift
when the company updates its earnings guidance for
the second half of the year and explains how the
surprising strength of sales growth has led to much
more robust cash flow than skeptics believed possible.
It's already sitting on $5.72 a share in cash.
Subtract out that cash, and the stock trades at the
low, low price-to-earnings multiple of 15 times
2007 estimates. That's about 25% lower than
comparable high-tech manufacturers, most of which
are not facing OmniVision's great prospects. There
are new competitive threats from the likes of
Samsung and Toshiba overseas, and Micron here, but
that's still too steep a discount.
OmniVision is making great strides in the
automotive and security arenas with low-cost image
sensors as well, but its bread and butter in new
sales comes from all the advertising you've seen by
carriers such as Verizon Communications (VZ:NYSE -
news - research - Cramer's Take) to encourage
consumers to upgrade call-only phones into ones
that take pictures or show videos.
There's also been a successful push to encourage
folks with low-resolution camera phones to upgrade
to 1-megapixel models with enhanced quality, such
as the Motorola RAZR and Samsung Blade. And next on
the horizon will be a holiday promotion to hype
people into wanting 2-megapixel camera phones that
easily take the place of a conventional digital
camera -- a product for which OmniVision is the
leading low-cost provider.
More Than a Memory Play
The biggest impediment to OmniVision's growth is
Micron, which is the industry's 800-pound gorilla
with about 35% of the market. Long known primarily
as the leading maker of random access memory, or
RAM, for personal computers, Micron a few years ago
branched out into more profitable products such as
image sensors. By the middle of next year, Micron
will have four new fabrication plants making both
image sensors and flash memory.
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As the mix tilts toward image sensors, Micron's
gross margins will get a huge boost as RAM chips
bring margins into the mid-teens, while image
sensors garner upward of 40%. Although an increase
in product would appear, on the surface, to
threaten the profitability of the industry, it is
only expected to meet demand from all the cameras,
mobile handsets, cars, video consoles and security
devices that are creepily keeping an eye on us.
Micron does not just make cheap sensors. It
recently rolled out the world's smallest
8-megapixel image sensor, a very high-quality
device that is expected to revolutionize the
business due to its low cost.
Micron will also benefit from the rollout of the
new Windows Vista operating system by Microsoft
later this year and next, as the sophisticated
software is expected to lead consumers to buy a lot
more memory: 1 to 2 gigabytes of RAM is expected to
become a standard, up from 512 megabytes, or about
a fourfold increase.
If you believe, as I do, that Micron can earn as
much as $1.40 in 2007 from all these efforts, it is
going for a forward price/earnings multiple of just
12, which is laughable for a company growing in
excess of 20%. Multiply that number by a more
reasonable P/E, such as 20, and you get a potential
price of $26, or about 60% higher than the current
quote.
Excuse me if I say it would be a snap to profit
from these two companies. You don't need to pick
one. Take them both, and shoot for the sky