This leaves special factors such as wars, commodity shocks and unilateral changes in fiscal policies as movers of the dollar. The first two fall into the category of event risk, and my opinion is no better or worse than anyone else's in this regard. Fiscal policies are another matter. If Washington starts to address the deficit by moving toward higher taxes and reduced spending in 2005, regardless of who wins the election, we will start to see a weaker dollar, just as we did in the mid-1980s and mid-1990s. Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell noted this mechanism and how it would be compounded if the Fed started to loosen monetary policy in conjunction. Such a move toward a weaker dollar, which could happen as soon as we get more electoral clarity, would lead to a global repricing of assets and a strong surge in volatility of returns. So rest up and get ready.