Everywhere you look these days, people are
scrambling for energy supplies.
China is scouring the world, from the oil sands of
Alberta to the oilfields of Iran. Morgan Stanley
and other investment banks have spent hundreds of
millions of dollars for petroleum still in the
ground. And more than 450 hedge funds (and
counting) are busy in the energy market, trading in
everything from coal to solar-power companies.
Peter C. Fusaro and Gary M. Vasey rattle off these
trends and put them in context in their useful
handbook, ``Energy and Environmental Hedge Funds:
The New Investment Paradigm.''
If you're looking for a beach book, this isn't it.
The authors write in a prose style reminiscent of a
brokerage report and talk about market conditions
such as ``backwardation'' and ``contango.'' They
abbreviate greenhouse gases as GHG.
So what? This is spinach, not dessert, and it's
loaded with vitamins. Who needs sugar, unless to
trade it as ``an energy- related commodity''? The
authors explain all this and more in their snapshot
of a market in motion.
Fusaro and Vasey are co-founders of Energy Hedge
Fund Center LLC, an online researcher and
consulting firm. According to their Web site, the
authors have between them more than 50 years'
experience in energy, which they call ``the world's
largest business with over $4 trillion in annual
trade.'' This expertise doesn't come cheap: Their
book is priced at $120.
No End of Oil
Their thesis can be summed up quickly. Demand for
energy is rising at a time when supplies are tight
because of a lack of sustained investment -- in
everything from oil exploration to power plants --
over the past 20 years. China has become the
world's second-largest oil consumer, yet the U.S.
is still gulping down more than 20 million barrels
of oil a day, or more than 20 percent of global demand.
``The world consumes four barrels of oil for every
one barrel that is added through exploration
activities,'' they say.
There's still plenty of fossil fuel out there, the
authors write, dismissing arguments found in a
gusher of recent books with titles like ``The End
of Oil'' and ``Out of Gas.''
``The `end of oil' cries are plain wrong,'' they
say, adding that ``in two years we will have more
than ample supply.'' Though I hope they meant two
decades, Fusaro and Vasey do have a case to make
about today's energy market.
``The bottom line is that we are in the middle of a
demand- driven bull market in energy commodities
like we have never seen before and probably won't
see again,'' they write.
`Plain Wrong'
With exploration and consumption out of kilter,
they predict the bull market for oil, gas, coal and
power will last at least two more years. ``What has
been the hardest obstacle for many energy analysts
and investors to comprehend is that it is different
this time,'' they say. This becomes their mantra.
Talk of a ``new paradigm'' always reminds me of the
dot-com bubble's ``new economy'' and Herbert
Hoover's era of ``endless prosperity.'' Yet even a
skeptic must admit that a chart of the Goldman
Sachs Commodity Index has resembled an up escalator
since early 2002. Ditto for crude-oil futures, with
prices still dancing around $70 a barrel, compared
with close to just $10 a barrel in late 1998.
Nor can one ignore that the collapse of Enron Corp.
in 2001 and the exit of other energy traders from
the business released ``trading talent on to the
street and created a vacuum in energy markets,'' as
the book says. Hedge funds like Citadel Investment
Group LLC of Chicago saw a chance to fill that
vacuum and snapped up the ``unemployed or unhappy.''
(The authors don't dwell on the Enron scandal,
which Fusaro explored in his book, ``What Went
Wrong at Enron.'')
How can you get a piece of the action? The authors
walk you through players ranging from equity funds
such as London-based RAB Energy Fund Ltd. to those
specializing in alternative energy, like New Energy
Fund LP. Several energy funds have ``between $400
million and over $1 billion in assets under
management,'' the authors write.
There are plenty of places to park your money, and
this book may help you find the right one for you.
Only you can decide if it's worth $120.