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Thu, 05 Jul 2007
Jim Jubaj on Rocky Mountain natural gas plays.
XTO Energy (XTO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) placed a huge bet on Rocky Mountain natural gas in early June when it acquired 1 trillion cubic feet of proved reserves in Texas and the Rockies from Dominion Resources (D - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) for $2.6 billion. In addition to the proved reserves (95% natural gas), XTO Energy also picked up 542,000 acres of leasehold, of which 235,000 are undeveloped. The bulk of the reserves are in the Uinta, San Juan and Green River basins. In June, XTO Energy boosted its production guidance for 2008 by 15%, to 580 billion cubic feet of natural gas. That would be roughly a 35% increase from 2006 production. Ultra Petroleum (UPL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) is the leading producer of natural gas on the Pinedale and Jonah formations in the Green River Basin. The company expects to see production climb to 135 billion cubic feet in 2008 (from 114 billion cubic feet in 2007) and to 160 billion cubic feet in 2009. As of the end of the first quarter of 2007, the company had price hedges in place for about 15% of its 2008 production. Ultra Petroleum's other big exploration effort is in the waters of China's Bohai Bay. Cabot Oil and Gas (COG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) owns unconventional natural-gas reserves in the Rockies, in Canada, in Texas and in the Appalachian Mountains. About 57% of Cabot's Rocky Mountain natural-gas production is hedged for 2007 with a $7 floor so that Cabot is likely to sell off relatively less in the tough period before the Rockies Express pipeline kicks in. But despite this "handicap," I recommend Cabot on any dip. The company has one of the highest returns on equity among similarly sized natural-gas producers at 16.2%. (That trails only XTO Energy at 23.4% and Chesapeake Energy (CHK - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) at 17%.) The company's very clean balance sheet, with a 16% debt-to-capitalization ratio, gives Cabot plenty of room for a strategic acquisition or two if it wants to increase the efficiency of existing fields. If you do manage to pick up any of these three on weakness over the next few months, I believe you can safely put them away for five years or more.
Posted 14:09

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