XTO Energy (XTO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)
placed a huge bet on Rocky Mountain natural gas in
early June when it acquired 1 trillion cubic feet
of proved reserves in Texas and the Rockies from
Dominion Resources (D - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)
for $2.6 billion.
In addition to the proved reserves (95% natural
gas), XTO Energy also picked up 542,000 acres of
leasehold, of which 235,000 are undeveloped. The
bulk of the reserves are in the Uinta, San Juan and
Green River basins. In June, XTO Energy boosted its
production guidance for 2008 by 15%, to 580 billion
cubic feet of natural gas. That would be roughly a
35% increase from 2006 production.
Ultra Petroleum (UPL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)
is the leading producer of natural gas on the
Pinedale and Jonah formations in the Green River
Basin. The company expects to see production climb
to 135 billion cubic feet in 2008 (from 114 billion
cubic feet in 2007) and to 160 billion cubic feet
in 2009. As of the end of the first quarter of
2007, the company had price hedges in place for
about 15% of its 2008 production. Ultra Petroleum's
other big exploration effort is in the waters of
China's Bohai Bay.
Cabot Oil and Gas (COG - Cramer's Take -
Stockpickr) owns unconventional natural-gas
reserves in the Rockies, in Canada, in Texas and in
the Appalachian Mountains. About 57% of Cabot's
Rocky Mountain natural-gas production is hedged for
2007 with a $7 floor so that Cabot is likely to
sell off relatively less in the tough period before
the Rockies Express pipeline kicks in.
But despite this "handicap," I recommend Cabot on
any dip. The company has one of the highest returns
on equity among similarly sized natural-gas
producers at 16.2%. (That trails only XTO Energy at
23.4% and Chesapeake Energy (CHK - Cramer's Take -
Stockpickr) at 17%.) The company's very clean
balance sheet, with a 16% debt-to-capitalization
ratio, gives Cabot plenty of room for a strategic
acquisition or two if it wants to increase the
efficiency of existing fields.
If you do manage to pick up any of these three on
weakness over the next few months, I believe you
can safely put them away for five years or more.