April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Uranium companies from
Toro Energy Ltd. to Mega Uranium Ltd. are so
depreciated theyre trading at less than their
assets would be worth in a fire sale.
Thats one reason takeover speculation is
increasing after Japans nuclear crisis made
uranium miners 31 percent cheaper relative to book
value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Toro, which explores for uranium in Australia,
tumbled below the value of its net assets, and
Mega Uranium trades at a 59 percent discount. The
price-to-book ratio for Australias Paladin Energy
Ltd., the most likely takeover candidate among
producers according to BMO Capital Markets, slid
21 percent.
While last months disaster at the Fukushima Dai-
Ichi plant triggered fears of radiation, firms
from Commerzbank AG to Deutsche Bank AG are still
projecting higher uranium prices as developing
nations from India to China seek to meet power
demand in the worlds fastest-growing economies.
Nuclear Power Corp. of India said yesterday its
considering a venture with state-owned Uranium
Corp. of India to acquire mines overseas, and
Newmont Mining Corp. disclosed a 6.7 percent stake
in Paladin.
With the financial markets view on the uranium
industry and nuclear being extremely negative,
theres some opportunity because this is just a
knee-jerk reaction, said Ben-Ari Elias, a New
York-based analyst at Sterne Agee & Leach
Inc. The whole space is cheap and it shouldnt
be. I do think some properties will come up for
sale.
Discount to Assets
The Global X Uranium ETF declined 24 percent
before today since a magnitude-9 earthquake struck
Japan on March 11. Companies in the ETF are
trading at a median book value of 1.89 times, down
from 2.75 times on March 11, the data show. Cameco
Corp., Uranium One Inc. and Paladin are among the
ETFs largest positions, data compiled by
Bloomberg show.
Toro, which is seeking to develop the Wiluna
deposit in Western Australia, fell to 0.88 times
the value of its assets minus liabilities from
1.09 times during the same span, the data show.
The Australian company, with a market value of
A$101.3 million ($106.3 million), also explores in
Namibia. Toros shares were unchanged today in
Sydney.
Being in Australia, plus theyve got stuff in
Africa, and that makes it an interesting play as
well given the proximity to China, India, said
Robert Lauzon, a portfolio manager at Middlefield
Group, which manages about C$3 billion ($3.1
billion). Over time, youre not going to see the
slowdown in India, China and Russia.
Toro is awaiting regulatory approval for its $278
million Wiluna uranium mine.
Big Drop
Weve had a big drop because were in the
development doldrums and people know well need to
raise money for Wilunas development in 2012,
Chief Executive Officer Greg Hall said in an
interview.
Mega Uranium, which is developing mines in
Australia and exploring for the metal in Canada
and Cameroon, now trades at 0.41 times book value,
down from 0.61 times. The shares rose 5 cents, or
9.8 percent, to 56 cents at 10:58 a.m. in Toronto,
giving it a market value of $149.7 million.
Richard Patricio, a spokesman for Toronto-based
Mega Uranium, didnt respond to a phone call
requesting comment.
It may be too soon for uranium companies to draw
acquisition interest because the stocks may get
cheaper, said Edward Sterck, a London-based mining
analyst at BMO Capital.
If the stocks sell off to a certain extent we
could see an increase in M&A, Sterck said. I
dont feel that were quite at that level yet.
Most uranium producers cant do a deal right now
because companies like Cameco and Uranium One have
shareholders who may block a transaction, he said.
Vancouver-based Uranium One is controlled by
Russias state-owned nuclear company Rosatom Corp.
Foreign Ownership
Cameco, the worlds third-largest uranium
producer, is protected by Canadian incorporation
rules that cap individual foreign ownership at 15
percent, said Murray Lyons, a spokesman for the
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based company.
Newmont, the largest U.S. gold producer, took a
stake in Paladin after completing the takeover of
Vancouver-based Fronteer Gold Inc., a shareholder
in the uranium company. Newmont of Greenwood
Village, Colorado, holds 6.699 percent in Paladin,
according to a notice filed with the Australian
stock exchange yesterday.
Newmont probably doesnt want to own the stake in
Paladin indefinitely, Middlefields Lauzon said.
Paladin may look attractive to a buyer after its
share price dropped because its one of the only
independent uranium producers that doesnt count a
company in South Korea, Japan or China as a major
shareholder, he said.
Paladin in Play
Shares of Perth-based Paladin had dropped 24
percent before today since March 11, cutting its
price-to-book ratio to 2.63 from 3.35. Paladin,
with projects in Africa and Australia, doesnt
have major shareholders that would try to block a
deal and being a uranium producer makes it more
attractive than an exploration or development
company, according to BMO Capitals Sterck. The
shares fell 0.8 percent to A$3.55 today, giving it
a market value of $2.9 billion.
Paladin has no interest in being acquired and
isnt looking for a large investor, said spokesman
Greg Taylor.
Indias Nuclear Power, the nations Mumbai-based
monopoly builder of atomic plants, is considering
forming a venture with state-owned Uranium Corp.
of India to acquire mines overseas and secure
supplies of the reactor fuel to meet demand, the
companys Finance Director Jagdeep Ghai said
yesterday.
Companies with advanced uranium projects such as
Perth-based Bannerman Resources Ltd. and Corpus
Christi, Texas-based Uranium Energy Corp. may also
lure acquirers, said John Stephenson, a senior
portfolio manager at First Asset Investment
Management Inc. in Toronto.
Uranium Fundamentals
Uranium fundamentals still look strong, he
said. But the headlines out of Japan look awful --
the space will trade on news flow, not
fundamentals, for at least six months.
Bannerman, whose shares had dropped 42 percent in
Sydney since the earthquake in Japan, is
developing its 80 percent owned Etango uranium
project in Namibia, one of the worlds largest
deposits. Uranium Energy is expanding output of
the commodity in Texas and other western states,
according to its website. The shares had fallen 20
percent before today since March 11.
Uranium Energy rose 14 cents, or 3.6 percent, to
$4 today in New York. Bannerman was unchanged at
40 cents in Sydney.
Uranium Energy Chief Financial Officer Mark
Katsumata wasnt available for comment, and
representatives for Bannerman didnt respond to
phone calls seeking comment.
Radiation Leaks
The earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan shut
power plants, including the Dai-Ichi station,
which is undergoing the worst nuclear crisis since
Chernobyl in 1986. That led to explosions and
radiation leaks as cooling water boiled away.
Japan has experienced rolling blackouts and faces
more power shortages as temperatures increase.
While uranium has retreated 15 percent since March
11 to $58.25 per pound of U308, the tradable form
of the metal, investment banks are still
projecting gains.
Commerzbank of Frankfurt estimated this month that
uranium would climb to $69 a pound this year and
$80 in 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Frankfurt-based Deutsche Banks forecast on March
30 predicted prices of $65 this year and next and
an increase by $5 a pound in both 2013 and 2014.
The damage from the Japanese disaster hasnt been
fully assessed. The initial reaction was to stop
everything, said John Kinsey, a Toronto-based
portfolio manager at Caldwell Securities Ltd.,
which invests in uranium producers as part of
overseeing about C$1 billion. Its a temporary
hiatus, things will go back to normal and merger
activity will start up again.
Nuclear Reactors
China has 13 nuclear reactors and 27 under
construction, according to the World Nuclear
Associations website. India plans to supply a
quarter of electricity from nuclear reactors by
2050, up from 2.5 percent in 2007, the association
said.
The Chinese may tweak their nuclear plans, but
theyre not going to walk away from them, Kinsey
said.
State-owned companies are the most likely
acquirers, including China Guangdong Nuclear Power
Group and ARMZ Uranium Holding Co., a unit of
Russias Rosatom, said John Wong, a London-based
fund manager at New City Investment Managers Ltd.
who helps oversee about $1 billion, including
shares of Cameco.
Anything that has anything to do with nuclear
energy or uranium just got dumped, said Ben
Mackovak, senior analyst at Charlottesville,
Virginia-based hedge fund Rivanna Capital LLC,
which owns about 2 million shares of uranium
company USEC Inc. Longer term the simple fact is
that nuclear energy is part of the energy
equation -- it has to be.
Overall, there have been 6,961 deals announced
globally this year, totaling $701.5 billion, a 32
percent increase from the $532.3 billion in the
same period in 2010, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.