Here are a few reasons why an early departure
would be appropriate:
Long gap between FOMC meetings: There's an unusual
amount of space in between the Fed's meeting on
Jan. 31 and the one on March 28. Greenspan will
thus be presiding over a meeting that casts a long
shadow in a quarter that often sets the tone for
the entire year for the economy. It also brings
Bernanke's decision-making closer in time to the
midterm elections.
Little time until semiannual report to Congress:
Twice a year, the Fed chairman is required to
deliver a semiannual monetary policy report to
Congress; the first is typically delivered in
February. While there's no doubt about Bernanke's
ability to prepare high-caliber testimony, it
would likely more accurately reflect the views of
all of the members of the FOMC if he were to have
more time with them in advance. Otherwise,
Bernanke's testimony could lean a bit too heavily
toward his personal views.
Uncertainties would clear more quickly: There are
numerous uncertainties with respect to how
Bernanke will lead the Federal Reserve, including
for example the construction of policy statements,
the extent to which he might deploy a strategy of
inflation-targeting and how he would react to
events as they occur.
Continuity: Bernanke stressed continuity in his
acceptance speech at the White House and it would
thus be quite a symbolic gesture for Greenspan to
hand the reins over early to his able successor.
Given the history and some of the compelling
factors that would justify an early departure, it
isn't necessarily a given that Greenspan will
preside over the Jan. 31 FOMC meeting. True,
Bernanke was appointed to fill a seat on the Board
of Governors that won't be vacant until
Greenspan's term expires, but there are two other
empty governor seats that Bernanke could take
without comprising any prospect for a lengthy stay
as Fed chairman.
Indeed, one of the empty seats is the seat that
Bernanke vacated, with a term that doesn't expire
until Jan. 31, 2018, when Bernanke could
theoretically be appointed for a second term and
stay on to become the longest-serving Fed chairman
ever.