Once the Fed removes the absolute certainty about
its course of action -- it's down to changing one
word in its post-meeting FOMC statements, and
federal funds futures trade unchanged on the days
of these announcements, so there really is only
one way for the market to go -- we can expect to
see volatility restored to the liquidity premium
in the bond market. Given the fixed nature of the
short end, the long end of the curve will have to
absorb the full brunt of the injected uncertainty,
and rates will have to rise for the 10-year note.