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Tue, 15 Feb 2005

Once the Fed removes the absolute certainty about its course of action -- it's down to changing one word in its post-meeting FOMC statements, and federal funds futures trade unchanged on the days of these announcements, so there really is only one way for the market to go -- we can expect to see volatility restored to the liquidity premium in the bond market. Given the fixed nature of the short end, the long end of the curve will have to absorb the full brunt of the injected uncertainty, and rates will have to rise for the 10-year note.
Posted 09:00

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