Though Stack published his newsletter Friday
evening, I'm sure he found further support for his
real estate beliefs from the news Monday. Stack
had noted that one of the biggest sources of
concern about the housing market is that "new-home
construction [is] hitting record highs, while new
home sales have already dropped close to 20-month
lows."
According to data released Monday by the U.S.
Department of Commerce, this divergence between
supply and demand has widened even further. In
January, the inventory-to-sales ratio for new
homes increased to 4.7 months - its highest level
since mid-2000. Read news story.
The increasing supply of new home sales is just
one straw in the wind, of course. But on any of a
number of fronts, Stack finds disturbing parallels
between investors' attitudes today toward real
estate with their attitudes toward Internet stocks
prior to their bubble bursting in March 2000.
Whether the speculative frenzy is in Internet
stocks, real estate or any other asset, for that
matter, Stack believes that the telltale signs of
a bubble include:
Buying based only on anticipation of rising prices
rather than on fundamentals.
Expectations based on recent gains rather than on
historic norms.
No respect for risk.
Major perceived risk: "Not being on board" rather
than "possibly losing money."
Speculation and greed prevail.
Stack concludes: "Now I know housing bubbles tend
to be regional or selective. But speaking at
conferences, I keep hearing more and more war
stories from regions all over the country: Houses
selling above the asking price to the highest
bidder. Houses being bought, then immediately put
back on the market hoping to flip a quick profit.
This is truly nutty stuff that easily rivals
the 'can't-lose' psychology on Wall Street in the
bubble years."