Oil may rise, oil may fall. Either way you can win
with a pair of stocks ideally bought in tandem. One
is the Norwegian energy company Statoil (nyse: STO
- news - people ) (27, STO ). What's keeping the
shares cheap? Investor misgivings about the holder
of a 71% stake (the Norwegian government), the
company's recent purchase of Norsk Hydro (nyse:
NHY - news - people )'s energy business and
regulatory issues delaying the startup of new
projects. But this is a good company, soon to be
the world's largest producer of offshore oil and
gas. It's cheap at 10 times likely 2007 earnings
and 90% of annual sales.
But falling oil prices help U.S. fertilizer maker
Agrium (nyse: AGU - news - people ) (35, AGU ). Its
product line is boring--ammonium nitrate, phosphate
and potassium fertilizers. A stronger corn planting
this year could boost revenue. Still, no one sees
this company as a reverse energy play. It takes a
lot of energy to mine potash and phosphates; the
nitrogen fertilizers come from natural gas. Falling
prices for oil and natural gas will help Agrium
more than they will hurt it by depressing the
demand for corn ethanol (and thus for corn
fertilizers).
Buy Statoil and Agrium together. Your mini-hedge
fund should do well no matter which way oil goes.