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Sat, 17 Feb 2007
Ken Fisher a paired trade
Oil may rise, oil may fall. Either way you can win with a pair of stocks ideally bought in tandem. One is the Norwegian energy company Statoil (nyse: STO - news - people ) (27, STO ). What's keeping the shares cheap? Investor misgivings about the holder of a 71% stake (the Norwegian government), the company's recent purchase of Norsk Hydro (nyse: NHY - news - people )'s energy business and regulatory issues delaying the startup of new projects. But this is a good company, soon to be the world's largest producer of offshore oil and gas. It's cheap at 10 times likely 2007 earnings and 90% of annual sales. But falling oil prices help U.S. fertilizer maker Agrium (nyse: AGU - news - people ) (35, AGU ). Its product line is boring--ammonium nitrate, phosphate and potassium fertilizers. A stronger corn planting this year could boost revenue. Still, no one sees this company as a reverse energy play. It takes a lot of energy to mine potash and phosphates; the nitrogen fertilizers come from natural gas. Falling prices for oil and natural gas will help Agrium more than they will hurt it by depressing the demand for corn ethanol (and thus for corn fertilizers). Buy Statoil and Agrium together. Your mini-hedge fund should do well no matter which way oil goes.
Posted 11:11

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