NEW YORK (AP) - A Lehman Brothers analyst upgraded
shares of ethanol producers Aventine Renewable
Energy Holdings Inc. and VeraSun Energy Corp.
Thursday, saying flat corn prices, impending
alternative energy legislation and a narrower
spread between the cost of ethanol and gasoline
could lift the shares as much as 50 percent in the
next three months.
Both stocks are trading near annual lows, with
VeraSun shares down 24.8 percent since July 11,
and Aventine shares off 25.3 percent.
Ethanol producers have been weaker than the
broader market over the last month, said analyst
Mansi Singhal, who upgraded the sector
to "Positive" from "Neutral," and raised his
ratings on Aventine and VeraSun to "Overweight"
from "Equal Weight."
He has a price target of $20 per share on Aventine
stock, and $17 per share on VeraSun.
"We think the downside risk may be limited to only
10 to 15 percent, while the upside potential could
be as high as 30 percent to 50 percent over the
next three months," he wrote in a note to clients.
Singhal said he thinks Congress will require
greater use of ethanol before the end of next
year, although differences between House and
Senate versions of energy bills and White House
opposition could keep that from happening in 2007.
This year's large corn crop should keep prices
flat or reduce them slightly, he added. While
ethanol is significantly cheaper than gasoline,
Singhal thinks that discount will become narrower
in the months ahead.
Aventine shares closed at $13.70 Wednesday, and
have traded between $13.10 to $28.83 in the last
year. VeraSun shares finished at $12.24 Wednesday,
and have ranged from $12.11 to $26.90.