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Mon, 15 Jun 2009
More John Dorfman/stocks--He likes BHP Billiton
Commodity stocks may be helped, though less by rising rates than by the inflation likely to accompany it. When the government prints more dollars, the price of materials such as steel, copper and gold usually rises as a swollen supply of dollars chases a stable supply of goods. Pure plays in gold are often too expensive for me. But I like BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company. Based in Melbourne, Australia, BHP Billiton produces coal and oil along with gold and other metals and gets about 20 percent of its revenue from China. It sells for 11 times earnings. I’m also fond of Cleveland-based OM Group Inc., the world’s largest cobalt producer, trading at 11 times earnings. And I continue to favor U.S. Steel Corp., one of the cheapest stocks around at three times earnings. Consumer Stock Blues Beware of consumer stocks. Consumers are rebuilding their balance sheets and digging out of debt. It’s a gradual process at best, and rising rates may make it slower, as adjustable-rate mortgages bite harder and refinancing becomes a less-pleasant alternative. In last week’s column, I said these consumer stocks were overvalued: Amazon.com Inc., Starbucks Corp., Sears Holding Corp. and Whole Foods Market Inc. Amazon sells for 57 times earnings and the others trade for more than 23 times earnings. I continue to advise investors to lighten up on these. Financial stocks would probably be harmed. Banks find it easier to borrow at 3 percent and lend at 6 percent than to borrow at 5 percent and lend at 10. In other words, it’s harder for banks and other lenders to have good lending spreads when interest rates rise. Stock brokerage firms also suffer when rates go up, partly because they too are involved in lending. Also, when rates rise, bonds pose tougher competition for stocks. Currently, financial stocks constitute 13 percent of the S&P 500. I recommend that your portfolio be at that level or less.
Posted 14:41

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