Commodity stocks may be helped, though less by
rising rates than by the inflation likely to
accompany it. When the government prints more
dollars, the price of materials such as steel,
copper and gold usually rises as a swollen supply
of dollars chases a stable supply of goods.
Pure plays in gold are often too expensive for me.
But I like BHP Billiton Ltd., the worlds largest
mining company. Based in Melbourne, Australia, BHP
Billiton produces coal and oil along with gold and
other metals and gets about 20 percent of its
revenue from China. It sells for 11 times earnings.
Im also fond of Cleveland-based OM Group Inc., the
worlds largest cobalt producer, trading at 11
times earnings. And I continue to favor U.S. Steel
Corp., one of the cheapest stocks around at three
times earnings.
Consumer Stock Blues
Beware of consumer stocks. Consumers are rebuilding
their balance sheets and digging out of debt. Its
a gradual process at best, and rising rates may
make it slower, as adjustable-rate mortgages bite
harder and refinancing becomes a less-pleasant
alternative.
In last weeks column, I said these consumer stocks
were overvalued: Amazon.com Inc., Starbucks Corp.,
Sears Holding Corp. and Whole Foods Market Inc.
Amazon sells for 57 times earnings and the others
trade for more than 23 times earnings. I continue
to advise investors to lighten up on these.
Financial stocks would probably be harmed. Banks
find it easier to borrow at 3 percent and lend at 6
percent than to borrow at 5 percent and lend at 10.
In other words, its harder for banks and other
lenders to have good lending spreads when interest
rates rise.
Stock brokerage firms also suffer when rates go up,
partly because they too are involved in lending.
Also, when rates rise, bonds pose tougher
competition for stocks.
Currently, financial stocks constitute 13 percent
of the S&P 500. I recommend that your portfolio be
at that level or less.