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Thu, 23 Jun 2011
Good Article on Steel stocks.
As the market has rallied significantly off the March 2009 lows, it's worth reviewing how sectors have performed over that time period. Some companies such as Caterpillar (CAT) have recently reached all time highs. Others like the steel sector have struggled to even approach those levels. This will be the first in a series of articles reviewing sectors that remain significantly below the pre-financial peak. Some sectors might offer huge upside as their sector might join the rally while others might never recover. One of the major reasons the US steel companies have struggled to recover is that they are a lot more levered to the US market and hence hampered by domestic demand. Companies like CAT export to the global markets where growth recovered much quicker from the financial crisis. Also, input costs such as met coal and iron ore have soared as global demand squeezes profits. Is it time for the steel sector to recover? Most of the leading stocks peaked in June 2008, over 3 years ago. Leading steel producer United States Steel (X) trades some 79% below the peak of over $190. Maybe it isn't logical for them to regain such lofty levels, as domestic construction spending hasn't recovered, but steel demand is picking up via strong demand for pipes in oil and gas drilling. Also, the auto sector should have robust demand in the 2nd half of 2011. They might not recover the whole gap, but it seems logical that steel companies could narrow the gap from these levels. Review of the leading steel stocks: U.S. Steel (X) - X is the leading steel producer in the US with 2011 sales forecast at over $20B and a market cap slightly below $6B. The company has its own iron ore supply providing some cost protection from soaring iron ore prices. The stock peaked on June 24, 2008 at $196 and is down roughly 79%. The company continues to post losses, but expects the rest of 2011 to be very profitable as rising steel prices have finally caught up with raw material costs. Nucor Corporation (NUE) - Produces numerous steel products and is the largest recycler in North America. Analysts estimate over $19B in revenue for 2011 with a market cap over $12B giving NUE the largest valuation by far. The stock peaked on May 19, 2008 at $83.56. The stock is currently just below $40 leaving it down over 50% of those highs. AK Steel Holding (AKS) - AK produces flat-rolled carbon, stainless, and electrical sheets, and tubular products. Analyst estimate that AKS will have $6.8B in revenue with a market cap of only $1.5B. The stock peaked on June 12, 2008 at $72.99. Currently at $14, the stock is down roughly 81%. Or conversely, it would require a 420% gain to recapture that high. Steel Dynamics (STLD) - STLD focuses on hot rolled, cold rolled, and coated steel products, with a heavy emphasis on steel recycling. STLD has 2011 forecasted sales of $8B and a market cap around $3.3B. The stock peaked at June 24, 2008 at $40.92. Currently at around $15 the stock remains down 64% from those peaks.
Posted 14:15

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