As the market has rallied significantly off the
March 2009 lows, it's worth reviewing how sectors
have performed over that time period. Some
companies such as Caterpillar (CAT) have recently
reached all time highs. Others like the steel
sector have struggled to even approach those levels.
This will be the first in a series of articles
reviewing sectors that remain significantly below
the pre-financial peak. Some sectors might offer
huge upside as their sector might join the rally
while others might never recover.
One of the major reasons the US steel companies
have struggled to recover is that they are a lot
more levered to the US market and hence hampered by
domestic demand. Companies like CAT export to the
global markets where growth recovered much quicker
from the financial crisis. Also, input costs such
as met coal and iron ore have soared as global
demand squeezes profits.
Is it time for the steel sector to recover? Most of
the leading stocks peaked in June 2008, over 3
years ago. Leading steel producer United States
Steel (X) trades some 79% below the peak of over
$190. Maybe it isn't logical for them to regain
such lofty levels, as domestic construction
spending hasn't recovered, but steel demand is
picking up via strong demand for pipes in oil and
gas drilling. Also, the auto sector should have
robust demand in the 2nd half of 2011.
They might not recover the whole gap, but it seems
logical that steel companies could narrow the gap
from these levels.
Review of the leading steel stocks:
U.S. Steel (X) - X is the leading steel producer in
the US with 2011 sales forecast at over $20B and a
market cap slightly below $6B. The company has its
own iron ore supply providing some cost protection
from soaring iron ore prices. The stock peaked on
June 24, 2008 at $196 and is down roughly 79%. The
company continues to post losses, but expects the
rest of 2011 to be very profitable as rising steel
prices have finally caught up with raw material costs.
Nucor Corporation (NUE) - Produces numerous steel
products and is the largest recycler in North
America. Analysts estimate over $19B in revenue for
2011 with a market cap over $12B giving NUE the
largest valuation by far. The stock peaked on May
19, 2008 at $83.56. The stock is currently just
below $40 leaving it down over 50% of those highs.
AK Steel Holding (AKS) - AK produces flat-rolled
carbon, stainless, and electrical sheets, and
tubular products. Analyst estimate that AKS will
have $6.8B in revenue with a market cap of only
$1.5B. The stock peaked on June 12, 2008 at $72.99.
Currently at $14, the stock is down roughly 81%. Or
conversely, it would require a 420% gain to
recapture that high.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) - STLD focuses on hot rolled,
cold rolled, and coated steel products, with a
heavy emphasis on steel recycling. STLD has 2011
forecasted sales of $8B and a market cap around
$3.3B. The stock peaked at June 24, 2008 at $40.92.
Currently at around $15 the stock remains down 64%
from those peaks.