No one can ignore the push in the United States and
elsewhere across the globe to move away from a
dependence on fossil fuels and into a more
environmentally friendly, low carbon emission means
of producing energy, and in particular electricity.
Feeling this push, politicians are moving to
formulate plans by which electricity can be
produced in an environmentally sound manner.
Despite the recent advancements in clean coal
technology, coal fired power plants are still
targeted as public enemy number one by the
environmental movement. The United States, however,
is still very much dependent upon coal as its
primary supplier of electricity and no other
environmentally friendly sources have proven that
they are capable of supplying even close to as much
energy as coal at a price that is cost feasible.
But there is perhaps an exception that is becoming
more cost feasible. That is nuclear power.
American politicians seemed to have turned their
attention to nuclear power to help produce emission
free electricity. Presidential candidate John
McCain recently stated that he would like to see 45
new nuclear facilities built by the year 2030 and
pledged 2 billion taxpayer dollars a year to help
make that a reality. It is very likely that a
proposal such as this will come to fruition no
matter which party is elected and having funds like
this available make nuclear power a cost feasible
method of producing emission free electricity.
The first thought that investors will have in
looking to play this coming boom in nuclear power
will be to buy up stock in the owner/operators of
the nuclear plants such as companies like NRG
Energy (NRG). The issue with this is that even with
such substantial federal subsidies in the pipeline
for building these new plants it is likely that the
nuclear power companies will still have to make a
substantial initial investment in each reactor they
build because of the hefty up front cost.
Furthermore, with electricity being a regulated
product, the profits that these companies can make
will be capped.
The best way to play the future nuclear boom is to
look to the most integral suppliers for the
production of nuclear power: the uranium producers.
The uranium producers' stocks right now have
bargain basement prices and they stand to profit
immensely in the coming years as nuclear production
begins to ramp up.
The recent decline in prices of uranium has
hammered the stock prices of uranium producers such
as Uranium Resources Inc. (URRE) and Denison Mines
Corporation (DNN). There are many factors to blame
for the recent decline in prices and the first is
that the 2006-2007 run-up in uranium prices was
caused by a worldwide surge in demand and also by
speculators frantically buying uranium in
anticipation of a surge in nuclear capacity, only
to sell when they realized that the surge was still
years off. Though the surge is still a few years
away, the decline in uranium prices has created the
perfect opportunity for the long term investor to
swoop in and pick up some shares in these uranium
producers at extremely low prices.
The worldwide demand for uranium hasn't changed too
much over the years as year after year new
production fails to meet worldwide demand.
According to the Energy Watch Group, an
organization of scientists that continually
research worldwide energy production, the current
demand for uranium is 67 kt/year and only 42
kt/year are supplied by new production. The
remaining 25 kt is supplied by stockpiles at mines
and power plants that were accumulated prior to
1980. The Energy Watch Group estimates that these
stockpiles will be exhausted within 10 years and
this will leave a tremendous imbalance between
supply and demand that the uranium producers will
have to step in to fill. Add to this scenario a new
rash of federally subsidized nuclear reactors in
the United States and the supply and demand
imbalance becomes even larger.
The graph below, provided by the Energy Watch
Group, shows the availability of yet to be mined
uranium reserves. The orange shows reasonably
expected reserves which can be extracted at $40.00
per Kt, the yellow area is reasonably expected
reserves that can be extracted at $130.00 per Kt,
and the light blue area shows inferred reserves
that can be extracted at $130.00 per Kt. The black
line shows the expected demand for uranium.
To give you an extra idea as to how critical the
uranium supply situation can be, eleven countries
including Germany, The Czech Republic, France,
Congo, Gabon, Bulgaria, Tadshikistan, Hungary,
Romania, Spain, Portugal and Argentina have already
exhausted their domestic uranium resources. Several
of these countries rely very heavily upon nuclear
power for their electricity production and having
no domestic uranium supply means that they must
import their entire supply.
The one factor that seems to be keeping prices of
uranium stable currently is the aforementioned
stockpiles at the mines and power plants. These
stockpiles that were created during the uranium
mining boom of the 1970s mean that all demand can
currently be met at reasonable prices. When these
stockpiles do run out is when a worldwide shortage
could take effect and give the uranium producers a
golden opportunity to bring their products to
market at an extremely high price.
For an investor to take advantage of this long term
trend, the price seems right to jump in right now.
Not only do Uranium Resources Inc. and Denison
Mines Corporation look like they potentially stand
to benefit from the second coming of nuclear power
but so do companies such as Cameco Corporation
(CCJ), which is also a player in the gold market,
and Uranerz Energy Corporation (URZ), a smaller
company that is engaged in the exploration stage of
the uranium market rather than the actual mining.
The bottom line is that nuclear power is going to
make a comeback in the United States and if you add
more demand in the United States to an already
present (but masked by excessive stockpiles) lack
of supply then the answer inevitably will be higher
prices for uranium. Higher prices for uranium will
make the uranium producers money along with any
investor prudent enough to pick up shares in their
stock while they are at bargain prices.
Disclosure: None