Buyers seeking a piece of North Americas shale
boom can find it in Australia.
Australian companies exploring for oil and natural
gas thats trapped in shale rock in the U.S. and
Canada are valued at a median of 11 times their
reserves, a 23 percent discount to their
counterparts that are listed on stock exchanges in
North America, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg. The valuation gap -- driven by
Australian investors who are more than 8,000 miles
(12,800 kilometers) from the companies wells in
Texas and Oklahoma -- may lure acquirers, said RBS
Morgans Ltd.
Enlarge image Shale Takeovers Loom as Texas
Discounted in Australia
Exxon Mobil Corp., the worlds largest energy
company by market value, last week said it will pay
about $2 billion for Bakken shale assets in North
Dakota and Montana. Photographer: Michael
Nagle/Bloomberg
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Antares Energy Ltd. (AZZ) is among potential
targets, with its Southern Star field in the
Permian Basin in Texas worth more than twice the
companys $130 million market capitalization on the
Australian stock exchange, estimates Hartleys Ltd.
Adelaide- based Sundance Energy Australia Ltd.
(SEA), which last month agreed to sell a North
Dakota asset for more than the companys market
value at the time, could lure bidders with its
remaining acreage thats worth at least five times
more than whats reflected in the share price, said
Bell Potter Securities Ltd.
I expect many more transactions involving
Australian players and the huge number of U.S. and
international players currently looking to open up
and exploit shale gas and shale oil, Ben
Griffiths, who helps oversees $1 billion in assets
for Sydney-based Eley Griffiths Group Pty., said in
a telephone interview. The area is a hive of
activity and thats not going to lessen.
Melbourne-based Molopo Energy Ltd. (MPO) and Perth,
Australia- based Red Fork Energy Ltd. (RFE), are
also potential targets, he said.
Suitors Approach
Antares rose as much as 3.1 percent today before
ending Sydney trading unchanged at A$0.485. Red
Fork rose 4.3 percent, while Sundance was up 1.3
percent after rising as much as 3.3 percent
earlier. Molopo fell 3.2 percent to A$0.605.
Eric McCrady, Sundances managing director, didnt
reply to phone messages seeking comment. David
Prentice, Red Forks managing director, didnt
reply to a phone message or e-mail seeking comment
on whether the company is undervalued and a
takeover target.
Molopo isnt in any takeover discussions, Chief
Executive Officer Tim Granger said in a phone
interview from Calgary. Granger said Molopo is
undervalued, partly because of a lack of
understanding among Australian investors about the
companys Wolfcamp project in Texas.
Antares has been approached by suitors interested
in its Permian Basin projects and will consider
bids that reflect valuations paid for similar
assets, Chief Executive Officer James Cruickshank
said in a telephone interview from Dallas. Antares,
based in Perth, is also considering listing shares
in the U.S., he said.
U.S. Focus
Formerly known as Amity Oil Ltd., Antares changed
its name and shifted its focus to the U.S. in 2004,
after scrapping its Whicher Range gas project in
Australia and cutting reserves in Turkey. The
company invested in the Permian Basin in 2011.
That basin, a 300-mile long geologic formation that
has been gushing oil and gas for more than 90
years, is attracting interest from major
international oil producers who quit the region in
the mid-1980s when oil prices were lower. The
development of so-called hydraulic fracturing to
extract gas trapped in shale rock has opened
formations formerly written off as uneconomic.
Southern Star
Antares is definitely a candidate for
transactional activity on a corporate and an asset
basis, Dave Wall, an analyst at Perth-based
Hartleys, said in a phone interview. Investors in
Australia dont have a deep understanding of the
Permian. In Canada, it would be trading with a much
higher market cap.
Antaress market value yesterday was A$124.6
million ($130 million).
Wall pointed to BreitBurn Energy Partners LPs
purchase of oil and gas properties next to
Antaress Southern Star field. Los Angeles-based
BreitBurn paid $220 million for 9.5 million barrels
of oil equivalent of estimated proved reserves,
according to a statement. Based on that price,
Southern Star could fetch as much as $294 million,
Wall said.
Antares is worth A$1.22 a share, or more than twice
its closing price of A$0.485 yesterday, according
to a sum-of-the- parts valuation Wall published on
Sept. 5.
Sundance last month said it would receive $172
million for a stake in North Dakotas Williston
Basin from Denver-based QEP Resources Inc.
Sundance, which had a market value of about $162
million at the sales announcement, leapt 38
percent in one day.
Shale Standout
Even after selling the Williston Basin acreage,
Sundances concentration on areas rich in so-called
natural-gas liquids such as propane may appeal to
potential buyers, said Johan Hedstrom, an analyst
at Bell Potter.
U.S. companies are quite active in the shale
space, particularly in assets with a liquids focus,
and thats what Sundance has, Hedstrom said in a
phone interview. That makes them a standout.
Hedstrom has a 12-month share-price estimate for
Sundance of A$1.20 a share, 60 percent above
yesterdays closing price. The companys Bakken
formation assets are worth about $15,000 an acre,
and other fields about $5,000 an acre, higher than
the $1,000-per-acre value implied by its A$0.75
share price, he said.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), the worlds largest energy
company by market value, last week said it will pay
about $2 billion for Bakken shale assets in North
Dakota and Montana. Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA)
this month agreed to buy oil and gas fields in the
Permian Basin for $1.9 billion from Chesapeake
Energy Corp. (CHK), paying about $3,131 an acre,
data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Valuation Gap
The oil shale assets are certainly being looked at
by companies that need long-term reserves, Krista
Walter, a Sydney-based energy, oil and gas analyst
at RBS Morgans, said in a phone interview. Asset
sales are common but company takeovers can happen
as well.
Still, the Australian companies arent fetching the
valuations they deserve, said Bell Potters Hedstrom.
Eight companies with U.S. oil and gas assets have a
median enterprise-value-to-reserves ratio of 11
times, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That
includes Antares, which has an enterprise value of
$178 million, or 7.2 times its proven and probable
oil and gas reserves of 24.8 million barrels of oil
equivalent, the data show.
The median of 25 North American companies with
exposure to shale oil and gas, including EQT Corp.
(EQT) and Range Resources Corp., is 14.3 times, the
data show.
Were much better informed and educated about
shale than we were 12 months ago, yet the Aussie
companies with U.S. assets havent had much of a
rerating, Hedstrom said.
Debt Load
One reason for the gap is that Australian investors
arent comfortable investing in assets so far away,
said Antaress CEO Cruickshank. Antares wouldnt
choose Australia as a trading venue if it were
conducting a share sale today, he said.
You get the highest possible valuation for assets
when they are owned by the people who are closest
to them, he said. Australians seem pretty
comfortable investing in Asia. The Americans are
very good at investing in Canada.
Some Australian companies are also drawing a lower
valuation because they have higher levels of debt
than Australian investors are typically comfortable
with, said Walter from RBS Morgans. This would be
less of a problem for U.S. investors, she said.
Antares has net debt equivalent to 53 percent of
its net assets, compared with an average of 85
percent of shareholder equity for the 25 North
American companies, data compiled by Bloomberg
show. Macquarie Group Ltd. has also agreed to lend
Antares as much as $200 million under a debt facility.
Game-On
Many of these companies tend to have debt
facilities in place for capital expenditure
requirements and Australian investors tend to
prefer companies that dont have large debt
facilities, Walter said. In the North American
market, thats more common.
Molopo, another potential target, sold its
Australian coal- bed methane holdings to PetroChina
Co. in August so it could focus on the U.S. and
Canada, while Red Fork has projects in Oklahoma
covering a combined 145,000 acres, according to its
website.
Molopo also is considering a listing on a North
American stock exchange, potentially Toronto, CEO
Granger said last month. The listing closer to its
operations may help Molopos share price get
treated with a little more respect, he said.
Its game-on over there, and for the right basins
with the right producible characteristics, those
assets will be keenly sought, Griffiths, the fund
manager, said. Weve seen a couple of successes
and there will be a few that wont work, but it
looks like it has worked well for the Aussies.