Today's trade report could take a significant chunk off Q1 GDP. It looks like real exports in Q1 will only grow by roughly 5% annualized, while imports are set to boom by 15%. This suggests a net trade drag of 1.6ppts in Q1 after a drag of 1.4ppts in Q4. We were looking at 3.4% Q1 GDP, but this report shaves off 0.7ppts from our earlier estimate, taking us down to just 2.7% - the very low end of consensus. This still assumes decent 3.5% consumption growth and 11% business investment growth.