Let's look at some of the oil companies whose one
year analysts' target prices would translate into
more than 75% gains for the respective stocks
after the recent crash. A few of these are:
American Standard Energy Corp. (ASEN.OB), Magnum
Hunter Resources Corp. (MHR), Crimson Exploration
Inc. (CXPO), Abraxas Petroleum Corp. (AXAS),
Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR), and Northern Oil
and Gas Inc. (NOG).
I should note that NOG has in the not too distant
past been accused of accounting irregularities.
Since NOG has no debt, I cannot see much
motivation for this. Since the time of the
accusations, nothing has been proven to my
knowledge; and the force of the accusations has
faded. In fact NOG was upgraded by Global Hunter
Securities on Aug. 10, 2011 from Neutral to
Accumulate.
The lease holdings of these companies alone would
tend to put them above their current market caps.
The most recent big sale in the Eagle Ford went
for about $20,000/acre. The most recent big sale
in the Bakken went for about $17,000/acre. These
companies generally have their acreages on their
books for a fraction of these values. The book
values they report are therefore generally huge
underestimates.
The companies have the following holdings (as
these are ever changing they may not be
completely up to date):
NOG has approx. 155,000 net acres in the
Bakken/Three Forks.
CXPO has 51,305 net acres in South Texas
targeting the Eagle Ford, Lower and Middle
Wilcox, and the Frio-Vicksburg. It has 14,591 net
acres in southeast Texas targeting the Yegua,
Cook Mountain, and the Georgetown. It has 12,408
net acres in Colorado and other areas targeting
the Niobrara and the D&J Sands. It has 12,759 net
acres in East Texas targeting the Haynesville
Shale, Mid-Bossier, and the James Lime.
AXAS has 143,606 net acres in the Rocky Mountain,
Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, and Gulf Coast
regions of the United States, as well as in the
province of Alberta, Canada (as of Dec. 31, 2011).
MHR has 58,048 Net Marcellus acres. It has
273,000 Net Southern Appalachia acres. It has
24,872 Net Eagle Ford acres. It has 80,623 Net
Bakken/Three Forks Sanish/Madison acres.
ASEN.OB (in June 2011) entered into a letter of
intent to purchase 15,000 net acres in the
Bakken. This would bring its net Bakken acreage
to 48,000. In the Eagle Ford ASEN has agreed to a
transaction that when completed will increase its
acreage holdings in the Eagle Ford oil window
from a 10% Working Interest in 12,000 net acres
(two rigs presently running with 8 wells in
various stages of development) to a total of over
20,000 net acres. In the Permian Basin in the
Wolfcamp Shale in West Texas, ASEN entered into
an agreement to purchase a 100% Working Interest
in over 12,800 acres of the "Wolf camp Horizontal
Play" (10,000 acres of which are Held By
Production). In the Permian Basin in the Avalon,
Wolf-Bone Play in South Eastern New Mexico a
tentative agreement has been reached whereby ASEN
will acquire various non-operated working
interests in over 65,000 gross acres
(approximately 14,400 net acres).
DNR engages in the acquisition, exploration,
drilling, and extraction of oil and natural gas
properties in the Gulf coast region in
Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, and Alabama. It
has properties in Montana, North Dakota, Utah,
and Wyoming. It owns a Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
source that is located near Jackson, Mississippi.
It has266,000 net acres in the Bakken. DNR has
entered in to an agreement to acquire working
interests in Riley Ridge Federal Unit located in
southwestern Wyoming as well as mineral leases
adjoining the unit from Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC).
DNR has recently entered into a JV agreement with
Encana Corp. (ECA) to develop its 105,000 gross
acres (79,000 net acres) in the Tuscaloosa Marine
Shale. DNR's website provides scant detail about
its holdings. However, they are more extensive
than the small amount of detail I have described
above. The Bakken holdings are probably the
future gem. Notably DNR had great Q2 2011
earnings of $0.37/share (excluding one time
items). This beat expectations of $0.33/share,
and it was twice as good as the year ago result
of $0.18/share. The company raised its capital
expenditure budget to $1.35B from $1.3B. It is
bullish for 2012 on oil production at Hastings
and Oyster Bayou and accelerated drilling in the
Bakken.
Let's take a look at some of the financial
fundamentals of these companies. The data in the
table below are from Yahoo Finance.
Stock ASEN MHR CXPO AXAS DNR NOG
Price $4.90 $4.79 $2.82 $3.38 $15.53 $18.75
1 yr analysts target price $14.00 $9.61 $5.59
$6.22 $28.10 $33.56
Gain Forecast 186% 101% 98% 84% 81% 79%
PE N/A N/A N/A N/A 21.87 N/A
FPE 15.31 15.45 282 8.45 10.56 11.16
Analysts Opinion 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.1 2.0 1.6
EPS Growth in 2011 N/A 200.0% 69.0% 480.0% 96.8%
167.7%
EPS Growth in 2012 3100% 675.0% 105.6% 110.5%
20.5% 102.4%
5 yr. EPS Growth per annum 35.0% 121.0% 10.0% N/A
24.5% 25.0%
Market Cap $183M $595M $186M $310M $6.19B $1.15B
Enterprise Value $165M $634M $295M $404M $8.28B
$1.03B
Price/Book 3.53 3.56 0.72 6.50 1.33 2.64
Cash/Share $0.49 $0.03 N/A $0.05 $0.53 $2.02
Beta 0.75 1.71 1.73 1.29 1.32 2.01
I have just tried to identify oil stocks in the
Bakken and the Eagle Ford which may return large
gains to investors. These fields are prolific.
There is a much smaller chance of disappointment
by investing in companies developing them.
The fundamentals of the above companies all seem
reasonable. The larger cap companies above will
likely be the safest investments. However, all
are likely good investments. DNR is a fiscally
strong company. Others may be getting there soon.
They are a bit more speculative, but such
speculation may be worth it. When you look at the
forecast 186% gain in ASEN.OB, you have to think
it may be worthy of a small investment,
especially when you notice its beta is only 0.75.
MHR is an extremely well though of company. With
a 121% 5 year EPS Growth Forecast per annum, how
could it not be? NOG has no debt and good
potential.
You should use your own judgement about these
stocks, You should do further research. This
article is meant as an alert to potentially great
gains. I have tried to include some relevant
information about each company, but it is not
complete. FYI, the most recent big sales of lease
holdings in the Bakken indicated a price of
$17,000/acre and in the Eagle Ford $20,000/acre.
NOG may be the easiest value comparison. With
155,000 net acres in the Bakken, its book value
for those acres alone might be said to be
$2.635B. This is far more than its current market
cap or enterprise value listed above. These
stocks are great growth plays. Plus they are
great value plays too. You shouldn't be able to
go too far wrong. Obviously small companies can
get beat up badly in a bad overall market. This
has happened to these stocks recently. It makes
them that much better investments now. However,
you should be prepared for possible downward
movements if the market turns downward again. I
think the best plan may be to think of each of
these stocks as something you may need to hold
for up to two years. Of course, you may see great
gains in that time.