"Rising interest rates are typically
characterized by rising inflation and the
protection offered through TIP through higher
dividends should enable the performance of TIP to
compare favorably," says Mazzilli, who cautions
investors that the TIP could also decline if long-
term interest rates rise.
Long-term interest rates have been expected to
rise since early 2004, as the Fed embarked on its
campaign of measured rate increases. Nevertheless,
apart from a spike in the spring of 2004, the
yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond has
stayed 4% and 4.3% since the beginning of 2004.
Yields rise as bond prices fall, and vice versa.
Investor awareness in TIPS has grown substantially
over the past year as financial advisers have
increasingly attempted to prepare their clients
for a potential spike in inflation. The increased
interest in TIPS has led many analysts, including
Mazzilli, to note that the inflation-fighting
bonds might potentially be overvalued; this would
be a negative for investors interested in diving
into the TIP market now.
"While valuations have improved recently, our
interest rate strategists believe 10-year TIPS
remain slightly expensive," says Mazzilli. "As of
Jan. 6, the implied break-even rate of inflation
was 255 basis points for the 10-year TIPS, which
is above our current inflation forecast."
The difference between comparable maturity
Treasury and TIPS yields is viewed as the break-
even inflation rate.
Despite concerns about overvaluation, Mazzilli
notes that the TIP can be useful for investors who
wish to maintain a position in inflation protected
securities without going to the expense of buying
individual TIP bonds.
"Buying individual bonds can be quite expensive
for investors," says Mazzilli. "And it is often
difficult to build and maintain a diversified
portfolio of bonds unless considerable resources
are allocated to the asset class."
Posted 11:19
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