In late July, I mentioned that contrarian-minded
buyers should take a look at Diana Shipping
(DSX:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's
Take), which had busted its initial public
offering price and had traded down to the $11
range. Since then, despite skepticism over rumors
of the potential for better spot pricing in the
fourth quarter, Diana has advanced nearly 20%.
Another busted IPO, Dry Ships (DRYS:Nasdaq -
commentary - research - Cramer's Take), has done
the same -- moving to $17 from $14 in this
otherwise sluggish month of August.
Now I would like to call your attention to Excel
Maritime Carriers (EXM:Amex - commentary -
research - Cramer's Take), a drybulk shipper I
first wrote about in mid-January, when shares
were trading at around $19.50. Shares ultimately
peaked at $29 in early March before plunging over
the early summer to the mid-$11s. And now I think
it may be time to ship out with Excel again.
Shipping rates appear to have bottomed, as the
latest view is that China has no intention of
letting its steel and other industrial production
falter below its current 9% annual rate. And
meanwhile, analysts believe that drybulk shipping
is about to embark on its typical third- to
fourth-quarter advance. Pierre E. Conner III, an
analyst at Hibernia Southcoast Capital, said that
while shipping rates dropped off a great deal
from the fourth quarter of last year, they remain
well above their seven-year averages and will
probably advance in anticipation of a tightening
in the supply-demand balance in 2006