April 13 (Bloomberg) -- With a nasty recession
raging, 20 percent of all U.S. stocks with a market
value of $250 million or more are selling below
book value.
This group includes household names such as Duke
Energy Corp., Allstate Corp., Dow Chemical Co. and
Time Warner Inc.
Book value is corporate net worth, usually
expressed per share of common stock. Coca-Cola Co.,
for example, has $40.5 billion in assets and $20
billion in liabilities, for a net worth of $20.5
billion.
Divide that figure by Cokes 2.3 billion shares
outstanding, and you have $8.85 as the companys
net worth per share, also known as book value or
stockholders equity. With its shares trading at
$44.99, Coca-Cola sells for more than five times
book, a ratio I would consider expensive even when
the stock market is booming.
In normal times I want a price-to-book ratio below
two. These days, I look for ratios below 1.5, and
prefer those below one.
Some people dismiss book value as a measure of
intrinsic worth, saying that it is distorted by
accounting conventions. Let them scoff. The fewer
investors using this tool, the better it is for
those of us who do.
Certainly some accounting practices do create
distortions. Oil companies, for example, frequently
carry promising properties on their books for far
less than their true worth. On the other hand, a
technology company with an inventory of aging
modems may carry them on its books for a sum
greater than their true worth. Yet in my opinion
these anomalies are rare, and often relatively small.
Duke, Allstate
Here are five stocks selling below book value that
I think qualify as bargains.
Duke Energy, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, is
an electric utility that mainly serves the U.S.
Southeast and Midwest. It also operates in Latin
America.
I like Duke because it is a leader in nuclear power
and has a handsome dividend yield of more than 6
percent that looks reasonably secure. For a
utility, its debt load is slender, at 41 percent of
total capital.
Duke shares are selling for only 0.9 times book
value and 11 times earnings.
Allstate, based in Northbrook, Illinois, is the
largest publicly traded auto and home insurer in
the U.S. (Its biggest competitor, State Farm Mutual
Automobile Insurance Co., doesnt sell stock.)
Secure Dividend Yield
Allstates stock is at about $23, down from $65 at
the end of 2006. At todays price it trades for
seven times earnings and just under book value. I
think it has good appreciation potential from this
level, plus a dividend yield of more than 3 percent
that appears pretty secure.
Time Warner has a constellation of media assets,
including Time, Fortune, People and Sports
Illustrated magazines; Warner Brothers and New Line
Cinema movie studios; the AOL internet portal; and
cable television channels HBO, Cinemax, Cartoon
Network, TBS and TNT.
There are obvious synergies among these properties,
but New York-based Time Warner hasnt effectively
exploited them. Indeed, I look at it another way:
This collection of media properties is a tangerine,
pieces of which can profitably be spun off or sold.
Earnings in the fourth quarter dropped to 69 cents
a share from 99 cents a year earlier. The stock is
priced on the assumption that Time Warner will
continue to struggle. It sells for only seven times
earnings and 0.6 times book value.
Dows Debt
Dow Chemical, with headquarters in Midland,
Michigan, is a stock I shied away from for a long
time. I thought that it produced too many commodity
chemicals with thin profit margins and that high
oil prices would crimp its profits. And lately I
fretted about the debt it would need to finance its
off-again, on-again acquisition of Rohm & Haas Co.
The situation has changed. Oil prices have come
down, reducing the companys raw-material costs.
Dow has announced the sale of Morton Salt, the
largest salt maker in North America, to K+S AG,
Europes largest salt producer, for $1.67 billion.
The move gives me some faith that Dows management
will sell assets to pare down debt.
Most important, Dows stock has fallen to $10.94,
from a peak of more than $55 in 2005. At six times
earnings and 0.8 times book value, I find it
attractive.
Seaboards Potential
A more obscure stock I like in the below-book
category is Seaboard Corp, a family-controlled
company based in Merriam, Kansas. Seaboard engages
in pig farming, grain milling and ocean shipping.
If you are averse to volatility, Seaboard will give
you heart failure. For example, it was down 33
percent in November 2008, then up 33 percent in
December. But in the past five years its stock has
risen 187 percent, and I believe it continues to
have appreciation potential.
Seaboard shares fetch nine times earnings and 0.9
times book.
Disclosure note: I own Time Warner and Seaboard for
clients and personally. Some of my firms clients
own Allstate. I do not currently have long or short
positions in the other stocks discussed in this column.
(John Dorfman, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in
Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The
opinions expressed are his own. His firm or clients
may own or trade securities discussed in this column.)