Interesting article on the new zealand dollar and its corellation to Milk Prices.
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar
rose to the highest in more than a year after the
nations current account gap shrank to the least
since 2004 as a proportion of the economy.
Australias currency advanced.
The so-called kiwi also climbed for the first time
in four days after Auckland-based Fonterra
Cooperative Group Ltd., the worlds largest dairy
exporter, raised its milk price forecast for the
coming year by 12 percent. Demand for both
currencies may be trimmed before the Federal Open
Market Committee meets today and tomorrow to decide
on U.S. monetary policy.
Thats the best number since September 2004 in GDP
terms -- a significant improvement in the current
account, said Imre Speizer, a market strategist at
Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington.
New Zealands dollar rose as much as 1.5 percent to
71.71 U.S. cents, the highest since Aug. 22, 2008,
and traded at 71.67 cents as of 1:16 p.m. in
Wellington. It advanced 1 percent to 65.68 yen.
Australias currency gained 0.3 percent to 86.54
U.S. cents from 86.30 cents in New York yesterday.
The currency bought 79.50 yen from 79.32.
The New Zealand dollar touched 71.58 cents on Sept.
17, the highest since August 2008. Australias
dollar reached 87.75 U.S. cents the same day, also
the most since August 2008.
Current Account, Dairy
New Zealands current-account deficit shrank to
NZ$10.61 billion ($7.5 billion) in the 12 months
ended June 30, the narrowest annual gap in more
than four years, Statistics New Zealand said. The
median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of nine
analysts was for a NZ$13.3 billion gap.
The annual deficit was 5.9 percent of gross
domestic product, less than the 7.4 percent
forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey,
and the least since the period ended September 2004.
The currency extended gains after Fonterra said its
expects to pay its New Zealand farmers NZ$5.10
($3.64) for each kilogram of milk solids supplied
in the year ending May 31, up from a previous
forecast of NZ$4.55. The new estimate fully
factored the strength of the kiwi which remained a
concern, Fonterra Chairman Henry van der Heyden
said today.
This upgrade is good news for the massive dairy
and hence export sector -- hence New Zealand dollar
positive, Annette Beacher, an economist at TD
Securities Ltd. in Singapore, wrote in a note to
clients.
Exports, GDP
Australia, the worlds largest shipper of coal,
iron ore and wool, today kept its forecast for a
decline in commodity exports this fiscal year
little changed at A$158 billion ($137 billion) in
the year ending June 30, 2010. That compares with a
June estimate of A$160 billion and a revised A$197
billion for the previous year, according to the
Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics.
Gains in New Zealands currency may be trimmed
before a government report tomorrow that will
probably show the economy shrank for a
sixth-straight quarter. The second-quarter gross
domestic product figures will show a 0.2 percent
contraction, according to the median estimate of 12
economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Three
economists expect a flat to positive reading.
New Zealands two-year swap rate, a fixed payment
made to receive floating rates, rose to 4.12
percent from 4.09 yesterday.
Australian government bonds fell, ending two days
of gains. The yield on 10-year notes added three
basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 5.35
percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The price of the 5.25 percent security due March
2019 slipped 0.183, or A$1.83 per A$1,000 face
amount, to 99.303.