What about the value of the market relative to
earnings? Everybody says it's cheap. Everybody,
that is, but John Hussman, of Hussman Funds, who in
his weekly commentary writes that at 18-times
earnings the market is into its "third phase" --
the phase, he notes, that Richard Russell of Dow
Theory Letters says occurs when stocks "spurt
skyward on the hopes and expectations of a
continuing rosy future ... The low-priced 'cats and
dogs' historically make great moves in this third
phase."
Adds Hussman: "To anyone who examines more than one
or two decades of market history, even a multiple
of 18 is very rich by historical measures, and
can't be reconciled simply by reference to interest
rates or inflation. On closer inspection, of
course, valuations are even more hostile. Over the
past three years, profit margins have widened to
record levels, which have detached P/E ratios from
other fundamental measures - such as price/revenue,
price/dividend and price/book ratios. The S&P 500
is currently about double its historical norms on
those metrics. That isn't a forecast that stocks
have to eliminate that valuation gap, but it
certainly does suggest that stocks are priced to
deliver unsatisfactorily long-term returns from
these prices."