Various sectors have outperformed the market this
year shipping isnt one of them. General concern
that there will be too many vessels in the water
and the anemic pace of economic recovery have kept
the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), at 2,648 as of
November 1. That's far below its May 2008 pre-
crisis high of 11,793.
Writing in August 2009, when its stock was trading
in the $12-13 range and the BDI was also about the
same place as now (2,468), I argued that Diana
Shipping (DSX) was well positioned to outperform
during a shipping upswing due to its stronger
balance sheet and newer ships. While the shares
enjoyed a brief foray above $18 in mid-November
last year and held over $15 at various points
until May, now theyve returned to the original
$13 watermark ($13.46 as of the November 1 market
close).
Aside from the general malaise of the industry,
Dianas share price has suffered because the
company decided to pause its dividend (see
transcript of Dianas Q2 2010 earnings call) and
use the money to buy more ships at bargain prices.
This strategy has enabled Diana to keep its
debt/equity and debt/asset ratios, 0.32 and 0.24
respectively, notably below those of peers Genco
Shipping (GNK) (1.35 and 0.51), DryShips (DRYS)
(0.94 and 0.45), Navios Maritime (NM) (1.77 and
0.55), Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) (1.68 and .60),
Excel Maritime (EXM) (0.74 and 0.39), Newlead
Holdings (NEWL) (12.02 and .83), International
Shipholding (ISH) (0.81 and 0.37), and TBS
International (TBSI) (0.63 and 0.36) even while
it gobbles up more high-quality vessels.
But now theres an additional reason why Diana may
have a competitive advantage over other shipping
houses: Australian wheat. The news for Australian
wheat has been getting better and better. Higher
than average rainfall has created a bumper
Australian crop this year. (See A Surge for
Australian Wheat, WSJ.) Meanwhile recent U.S. crop
projections though still at historic levels
have moved downward (see Harvest Shocker Battles
Wall Street, WSJ) and the Russian harvest has been
threatened by drought and wildfires. (See Wheat
and Gold Stole the Markets Headlines, WSJ.)
Diana has particularly strong ties to Australia.
Digging into Dianas annual reports reveals that
for the last two years, Cargill, the dominant
foreign player in Australian wheat, and mining
giant BHP Billiton (BHP), Australias largest
company by market capitalization, have been its
biggest customers. (Diana Shipping annual reports
here and here.) Australian Wheat Board (AWBZY) is
currently on track to be taken over by Canadas
Agrium (AGU) and is also a regular customer.
The point here is that with strong ties to
Australia in wheat and other sectors, it's fair to
assume that Diana will have a competitive
advantage in making deals to profit from
Australias bumper crop.
The shipping market can be as unpredictable as the
wind, but for those who want to place a bet on
shipping, Dianas position in Australia is one
more reason why the companys shares at their
current valuation arguably provide a lower risk of
loss and higher profit potential than competitors.
Disclosure: Disclosure: The author is long Diana
Shipping (DSX) as of the original publication date
of this post. The author does not hold a
securities position in Genco Shipping (GNK),
DryShips (DRYS), Navios Maritime (NM), Eagle Bulk
Shipping (EGLE), Excel Maritime (EXM), Newlead
Holdings (NEWL), International Shipholding (ISH),
TBS International (TBSI), BHP Billiton (BHP),
Australian Wheat Board (AWBZY), or Agrium (AGU).
Disclaimer: The information provided in this post
does not constitute professional investment
advice, and should only be used in consonance with
all available information, including the opinion
of a professional adviser, to make an investment
decision.