Here's a timetable for armchair election watchers,
all given in Eastern Standard Time:
- 7 p.m.: The last polls close in Georgia, Indiana
and Virginia, new battlegrounds this year offering
a combined 39 votes, as well as in Kentucky and
South Carolina, GOP country and 16 votes McCain
should easily win, and Vermont, three, a sure
thing for Obama.
- 7:30 p.m.: Ohio and North Carolina, both are
critical for McCain.
Ohio is a perennial swing state that no Republican
has ever lost on his way to the presidency. Bush
captured the state twice, and a loss would be
difficult, if not impossible, for McCain to
weather. He has few options to make up the 20
electoral votes elsewhere, while Obama probably
could sustain a defeat here and look for wins in
other GOP states where polls show him running
stronger.
North Carolina, with 15 votes, is another GOP
state that Obama targeted for a pickup from the
start of the general election and one where he is
working to get blacks and young adults to turn out
for him in droves. He also made a late play for
West Virginia's five votes. Both are less likely
than others to flip; McCain losing either would be
disastrous.
- 8 p.m.: Final voting ends in some 15 states and
Washington, D.C.
For Obama, the biggest prizes among them are
Florida and its 27 votes and 11-vote Missouri, a
bellwether for decades. Both went for Bush, and
while Obama can afford to lose both, McCain can't.
Should the Republican stumble in those states or
others, he hopes to make up any deficit in
Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and hasn't
voted for a Republican since 1988. A loss here
could be the death knell for McCain's chances;
it's the only Kerry-won state where he and the
Republican National Committee are fiercely
competing.
Among other Kerry states, McCain hopes New
Hampshire and its independent streak will come
through for him again; the state, which has four
electoral votes, made him in his 2000 presidential
primary and saved him eight years later, setting
him on course to win the GOP nomination. McCain
also has been gunning for a single electoral vote
in Maine, one of two states that award them by
congressional districts.
In this election-night hour, the Republican will
almost certainly rack up 33 quick votes with wins
in Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee,
while Obama banks 47 from Connecticut, Maryland,
Massachusetts, New Jersey and the nation's capital
and 24 more from his home state of Illinois and
that of running mate Joe Biden, Delaware.
- 8:30 p.m.: Arkansas should be called for McCain
shortly after its polls close. It has six votes.
- 9 p.m.: Another big wave of states closing. The
ones to watch are hotly contested Bush states
Colorado and New Mexico, where Obama hopes
Democratic-leaning Hispanics will lift him to
victory. McCain could withstand losing the 14
votes these two offer - as long as he wins just
about everywhere else he's competing.
It's also worth keeping an eye on the typically
reliable Republican territory of North Dakota and
South Dakota. Obama has competed in the former,
and there may be overlap effect in the latter.
They each offer there votes. Obama is also pushing
for one vote in a Nebraska congressional district.
Arizona, McCain's home state, may be another key
indicator of which way the election will play out.
If McCain loses that state, it's all but certain
his presidential dreams are over. Some surveys
show the race there having tightened.
The Republican can essentially guarantee victories
worth 52 votes in Kansas, Louisiana, Texas and
Wyoming, while Obama is virtually certain to
collect 72 votes from Michigan, Minnesota, New
York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
- 10 p.m.: Voting ends in GOP-held, Iowa, Montana
and Nevada, a combined 15 votes. Losing these
would be a setback for McCain, while winning them
would be a boon for Obama. Utah's five votes are a
certainty for McCain.
- 11 p.m.: Four states - mega-prize California,
Hawaii, Oregon and Washington - are expected to
quickly give Obama a combined 77 votes, while
Idaho is expected to award its four votes to
McCain.
- 1 a.m.: Capping off the night is Alaska, where
GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is
governor. The Republican ticket is a shoo-in for
those three votes.
And then it's over. Or not.
As the past two elections showed, there's no
certainty. If it's a contest at all, the victor
may not be declared until Wednesday's wee hours.
Or later