The role of the wealth effect took on added
importance in the current economic recovery. With
jobs and real wages under extraordinary pressure,
there has been an unprecedented shortfall in the
cyclical rebound in this key wages and salaries
component of personal income. As job growth has
picked up in recent months, that gap has started
to close. But through April 2004, real wages and
salaries had still risen less than 3% from levels
prevailing at the recession trough in November
2001; that's far short of the nearly 10% gains
that had occurred in the first 29 months of the
preceding six cyclical recoveries. This translates
into a shortfall of $280 billion in "missing" real
personal income. In such an income-short recovery,
there is an added urgency to draw on the wealth
effects as a supplemental support to spending. In
the asset economy, the idea of cutting back on
discretionary consumption - a classic pattern of
the American business cycle - had also become
passé.
America's policymakers have joined in celebrating
the miracles of the asset economy. The Federal
Reserve has taken the lead in this regard,
providing the rock-bottom interest rates that have
taken asset markets into uncharted territory. But
the Great Enabler has now created the ultimate
moral hazard: overly-indebted consumers and overly-
exposed financial institutions, both of which are
exceedingly vulnerable to a long overdue
normalization of monetary policy. The fiscal
authorities have also been seduced by the siren
song of the asset economy. Income-short consumers
have drawn ample support from open-ended tax
cutting and the massive government budget deficits
such initiatives have spawned.
That takes us to one of the greatest pitfalls of
the asset economy - ever-widening twin deficits.
Increasingly, asset-based saving has come to be
viewed as a substitute for the income-based
impetus to consumer demand. This has resulted in
an unprecedented shortfall of domestic saving:
America's net national saving rate - the combined
saving of households, businesses, and the
government sector (net of depreciation) - fell to
a record low of about 2% of GDP in 2003. Lacking
in domestic saving, the US has had to import
surplus saving from abroad and run massive current
account and trade deficits to attract that
capital. The record current account deficit of
about $580 billion just reported for 1Q04 5.1%
of GDP is a grim reminder of how serious these
deficits are. Such twin deficits are part and
parcel of the asset economy. That also underscores
the important role that foreign investors -
especially foreign central banks - have played in
funding the excesses of a saving-short, asset-long
US economy. The world is hooked on America's asset
economy as never before.