Jeff Saut Raymond James brings out a few statistics about the Dow.
One of the sirens of the Bullish camp is "Stocks
are cheap."
I hear that all the time, and while I do not find
them to be twerribly expensive, they are not what
we traditionally have called cheap. Deep into a
bull market, single digit P/Es are cheap. Top of
the profit cycle, with lots of room to slip as the
economy cools -- or even just plataeus -- is not
exactly the bargain bin.
Nor is the Dow peculiarly inexpensive. RaJa's Jeff
Saut observes that "despite what the talking heads
suggest, the DJIA is not particularly cheap." Jeff
specifically notes the following about the much
watched Dow Jones Industrial Average index:
The DJIA is trading at nearly 23x trailing
12-month earnings while earnings momentum is slowing;
The Dow has an earnings yield (4.4%) below
the yield of the benchmark bond (4.7%).
It is changing hands at 3.4x book value, and
possesses a paltry dividend yield of 2.2%.
As the Dow tagged a new all-time high last
Wednesday the average price of its 30 components
was down more than 30%.
While the Dow exceeded its January 14, 2000
high (11,722) last week, only 10 of the 30 stocks
in the index are higher now than they were back then.
Jeff adds: "My problem with this whole rosy
scenario is that I just dont trust it. It feels a
lot like last May to me when everybody was focusing
on the DJIA as it tracked-out to fresh five-year
highs amid numerous non-confirmations from various
other indices."