John Dorfman on Bloomberg.com has some value screens and a few stocks.
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Its an ill wind that blows
nobody good. The drop in home prices helps
first-time home buyers. And the slow-motion crash
in the stock market is good for value investors if
they are fortunate enough to have some cash on hand.
As the year begins, there are more than seven dozen
stocks that meet three stringent bargain-hunting
criteria:
-- They are down 50 percent or more in the past 200
days.
-- They sell for less than book value (corporate
net worth per share).
-- Their stock price is less than 8 times the
companys earnings, a modest multiple by historical
standards.
In normal times, such bargains would be hard to
find. But 13 months into a recession, and after 14
months of a fierce bear market, there are dozens of
such stocks.
Using Bloomberg stock-screening software, I combed
through 1,764 U.S. stocks with a market value of
$500 million or more. I found 88 potential bargains
that meet those three criteria. Here are five
stocks that struck me as especially interesting.
Prudential Financial Inc. of Newark, New Jersey,
the second-biggest life insurer in the U.S., is the
largest of the lot. Prudential shares sell for only
5 times earnings and 0.69 times book value. The
stock fell 67 percent last year.
Why is Prudential so inexpensive? Insurance
companies generally dont make the bulk of their
profits directly from their insurance operations.
The premiums they collect and the claims they pay
are often roughly in balance.
Prus Cash Flow
These companies have tremendous cash flow, however,
and they usually invest the cash at a profit, most
often in bonds or bond-like instruments. Alas,
bond-like instruments includes a variety of
mortgages and mortgage securities, many of which
have plunged in the past year. Prudential also
invests in commercial real estate, which also has
fallen in value.
Prudential is implementing job cuts. It reported a
loss of $166 million in the third quarter. Yet the
fact that the company is passing through bad times
doesnt mean it will collapse. I think the stock is
worth buying if you intend to hold it for three to
five years.
Another battered large-company stock I like is
Valero Energy Corp., a refiner based in San
Antonio. Valero shares fell 69 percent last year,
and now can be bought for what seem to me to be
bargain multiples -- 5 times earnings, 0.10 times
revenue and 0.69 times book value.
Steal U.S. Steel
Investors are focusing on negative factors for
refiners, such as people driving fewer miles than
they did a year ago. They are ignoring positive
news, such as a decline in the price of oil, which
for refiners is a raw-material cost.
United States Steel Corp. is selling for the rarely
seen multiple of 2 times earnings. Does it have
troubles? Certainly. But it has reduced the burden
of its high labor costs and post- retirement
benefits, strengthened its balance sheet and
rationalized its fleet of steel mills.
The price of steel climbed from 2003 through May
2008, rising to a peak of $2,996 a ton from around
$315. Then it fell all the way to $535 in November,
but has since recovered to near $900.
Last month, a report from Goldman Sachs & Co.
upgraded the steel industry to a buy, based partly
on a belief that unprecedented supply cuts from
steel producers around the world would set the
stage for price increases.
U.S. Steels stock displays rock-bottom valuations.
It sells for 0.72 times book value and 0.19 times
revenue, along with that aforementioned
price-earnings ratio of 2. It yields 3.1 percent in
dividends.
Good Travels
Expedia Inc., an online travel agency based in
Bellevue, Washington, is my next selection. Its
stock fell 74 percent last year as investors
worried that high energy prices and a recession
would cripple travel. Expedia also faces vigorous
competition from Priceline.com Inc., Orbitz
Worldwide Inc. and others.
Those are legitimate concerns, yet I think its
notable that through September, Expedias earnings
had stayed within a few pennies of their quarterly
peak, reached in June 2008.
You can buy Expedia shares for 8 times earnings,
0.50 times book value and 0.85 times revenue.
Finally, I recommend Janus Capital Group Inc., a
Denver- based money-management firm. The shares
trade at $8.87, down 76 percent in 2008 and down
from more than $43 a share in 2000.
After suffering performance woes and a drain of top
talent in recent years, Janus has been attempting a
turnaround. Its revenue in the third quarter last
year was $243 million, a decline from $285 million
in the same quarter of 2007. Not too bad,
considering that weve been in a fierce bear market.
Janus sells for 8 times earnings, 0.87 times book
value and 1.25 times revenue. I would like to see
the company increase its dividend, currently only 4
cents a share.
Disclosure note: I own shares in U.S. Steel
personally and for clients. At this writing, I do
not own the other four stocks recommended in this
column.
(John Dorfman, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in
Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The
opinions expressed are his own. His firm or clients
may own or trade securities discussed in this column.)
To contact the writer of this column: John Dorfman at