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Tue, 13 Jan 2009
John Dorfman on Bloomberg.com has some value screens and a few stocks.
Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- It’s an ill wind that blows nobody good. The drop in home prices helps first-time home buyers. And the slow-motion crash in the stock market is good for value investors if they are fortunate enough to have some cash on hand. As the year begins, there are more than seven dozen stocks that meet three stringent bargain-hunting criteria: -- They are down 50 percent or more in the past 200 days. -- They sell for less than book value (corporate net worth per share). -- Their stock price is less than 8 times the company’s earnings, a modest multiple by historical standards. In normal times, such bargains would be hard to find. But 13 months into a recession, and after 14 months of a fierce bear market, there are dozens of such stocks. Using Bloomberg stock-screening software, I combed through 1,764 U.S. stocks with a market value of $500 million or more. I found 88 potential bargains that meet those three criteria. Here are five stocks that struck me as especially interesting. Prudential Financial Inc. of Newark, New Jersey, the second-biggest life insurer in the U.S., is the largest of the lot. Prudential shares sell for only 5 times earnings and 0.69 times book value. The stock fell 67 percent last year. Why is Prudential so inexpensive? Insurance companies generally don’t make the bulk of their profits directly from their insurance operations. The premiums they collect and the claims they pay are often roughly in balance. Pru’s Cash Flow These companies have tremendous cash flow, however, and they usually invest the cash at a profit, most often in bonds or bond-like instruments. Alas, “bond-like instruments” includes a variety of mortgages and mortgage securities, many of which have plunged in the past year. Prudential also invests in commercial real estate, which also has fallen in value. Prudential is implementing job cuts. It reported a loss of $166 million in the third quarter. Yet the fact that the company is passing through bad times doesn’t mean it will collapse. I think the stock is worth buying if you intend to hold it for three to five years. Another battered large-company stock I like is Valero Energy Corp., a refiner based in San Antonio. Valero shares fell 69 percent last year, and now can be bought for what seem to me to be bargain multiples -- 5 times earnings, 0.10 times revenue and 0.69 times book value. Steal U.S. Steel Investors are focusing on negative factors for refiners, such as people driving fewer miles than they did a year ago. They are ignoring positive news, such as a decline in the price of oil, which for refiners is a raw-material cost. United States Steel Corp. is selling for the rarely seen multiple of 2 times earnings. Does it have troubles? Certainly. But it has reduced the burden of its high labor costs and post- retirement benefits, strengthened its balance sheet and rationalized its fleet of steel mills. The price of steel climbed from 2003 through May 2008, rising to a peak of $2,996 a ton from around $315. Then it fell all the way to $535 in November, but has since recovered to near $900. Last month, a report from Goldman Sachs & Co. upgraded the steel industry to a buy, based partly on a belief that “unprecedented supply cuts from steel producers around the world” would set the stage for price increases. U.S. Steel’s stock displays rock-bottom valuations. It sells for 0.72 times book value and 0.19 times revenue, along with that aforementioned price-earnings ratio of 2. It yields 3.1 percent in dividends. Good Travels Expedia Inc., an online travel agency based in Bellevue, Washington, is my next selection. Its stock fell 74 percent last year as investors worried that high energy prices and a recession would cripple travel. Expedia also faces vigorous competition from Priceline.com Inc., Orbitz Worldwide Inc. and others. Those are legitimate concerns, yet I think it’s notable that through September, Expedia’s earnings had stayed within a few pennies of their quarterly peak, reached in June 2008. You can buy Expedia shares for 8 times earnings, 0.50 times book value and 0.85 times revenue. Finally, I recommend Janus Capital Group Inc., a Denver- based money-management firm. The shares trade at $8.87, down 76 percent in 2008 and down from more than $43 a share in 2000. After suffering performance woes and a drain of top talent in recent years, Janus has been attempting a turnaround. Its revenue in the third quarter last year was $243 million, a decline from $285 million in the same quarter of 2007. Not too bad, considering that we’ve been in a fierce bear market. Janus sells for 8 times earnings, 0.87 times book value and 1.25 times revenue. I would like to see the company increase its dividend, currently only 4 cents a share. Disclosure note: I own shares in U.S. Steel personally and for clients. At this writing, I do not own the other four stocks recommended in this column. (John Dorfman, chairman of Thunderstorm Capital in Boston, is a columnist for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own. His firm or clients may own or trade securities discussed in this column.) To contact the writer of this column: John Dorfman at
Posted 19:24

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