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Wed, 07 Sep 2005
Jim Jubak on post Katrina
In finance, the same caveats apply to companies with substantial exposure to consumers with less- than-sterling credit. With railroads, I'd avoid companies where the potential damage to their system outweighs the company's ability to increase revenue by grabbing more traffic at higher prices. So I'd avoid CSX (CSX:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) because of its geographical exposure to system disruptions in the Southeast. On the other hand, I'd look to add shares of railroads with less regional exposure and better management, such as Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) or Canadian National Railway (CNI:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take). When the Economy Shifts Second, look for companies positioned to profit from the way that Katrina has shifted costs in the economy. The rapid rise in the price of oil and natural gas makes me look at shares of coal companies. Coal had a substantial cost advantage before Katrina. It looks even more attractive as an alternative fuel after Katrina. Peabody Energy (BTU:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) is the obvious choice, but Penn Virginia Resources (PVR:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), with its greater exposure to eastern coal (an advantage if shipping is an issue for the long term) runs a close second. Another place to look for companies like this in is the utility sector. Here, a utility such as FPL Group (FPL:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), the largest producer of electricity from wind power in the U.S., looks even more attractive in a post-Katrina economy. General Cable (BGC:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take), a supplier to the utility industry, will see increased sales from infrastructure rebuilding along the Gulf Coast and from the continued push to increase the electricity grid's capacity to ship power long distances. In the oil service sector I'd look for shares of companies whose assets have escaped major damage from Katrina and that are positioned to gain major new work as the oil industry rebuilds. Cal Dive International (CDIS:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take), for example, has a fleet of manned and robotic undersea construction vehicles that exactly fit the needs of oil and gas companies in the Gulf of Mexico. Free of the Energy Drag Third, and finally, I'd look to increase my exposure to sectors of the economy widely known for their lack of exposure to the price of energy. If worries about the economy start to get really serious, seeking refuge in stocks such as PepsiCo (PEP:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) and United Natural Foods (UNFI:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) will start to look increasingly attractive to larger numbers of investors. But if worries about the economy don't intensify, I think the technology sector will be the place to be for investors seeking to avoid rising energy costs and looking for higher-than-average revenue growth. Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) is my one pick in that sector right now. But I'll be revisiting the sector this fall when we know more about growth in the post-Katrina economy. New Developments on Past Columns Good news from Marathon Oil's (MRO:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) preliminary assessment of damage from Hurricane Katrina to the company's Garyville, La., refinery. On Sept. 1, the company reported that an initial inspection revealed no damage to the processing units at the refinery. The company is now in the midst of inspecting the complete refinery prior to restart. If the refinery passes that inspection, it could begin the ramp to full production within three to five days. On a less positive note, the company's Kentucky and Illinois refineries are currently running at reduced rates due to the shutdown of the main crude oil pipeline from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest.
Posted 06:19

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