Over the past 40 years, studies by Moody's
Investors Service (MCO) have shown that the median
trading price of defaulted muni issues 30 days
after default is 59.5 cents on the dollar -- as
opposed to 37.5 cents on the dollar for defaulted
senior unsecured corporate bonds.
While corporations can be liquidated and
bondholders get what they can grab, states and
municipalities will mostly be righted -- their
debt payments lowered and their maturities
extended. So, to keep the capital markets open to
states and municipal issuers, bondholders will
eventually be made close to (or completely) whole,
which means most or all principal and interest
will probably be paid.
You don't have to be a hedge fund to play in this
sandbox. You may not be able to buy credit-default
swaps on muni bonds, but you can short the iShares
S&P National AMT-Free Muni Bond Exchange-Traded
Fund (MUB). It's currently trading at roughly $100.
If you short the ETF there, and put in a 10% stop-
loss order at $110 to cover the position if it
goes against you (which is a great stop position
because MUB has never traded that high), you'll be
in a perfect spot to play the swoon in the muni-
bond meltdown.
And when the yields on munis approach the double
digits, or you've reached your profit target,
cover your position and buy, buy, buy.
There you have it. With your newfound strategy in
hand, all you have to do is get the timing right.
And, if you do, those hedge-fund folks will never
seem invincible again.