By Masaki Kondo and Toshiro Hasegawa
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japans Nikkei 225 Stock
Average, the worlds worst performer in the 20
years since its record high, offers a cheap way to
bet on emerging markets, according to Mitsubishi
UFJ Asset Management Co.
Investors should buy Japanese steelmakers,
machinery manufacturers and plant builders to
benefit from economic growth in countries from
China to Brazil, said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a
strategist at the unit of Japans largest listed
bank with $68 billion of assets. China has
allocated 89 percent of its 4 trillion yuan ($586
billion) stimulus fund to infrastructure, according
to an August report by the McKinsey Global Institute.
Infrastructure spending will continue to grow for
a long time in emerging markets, Ishigane said.
Thats where Japanese companies have an absolute
advantage.
The idea of investing in Japanese companies as a
play on emerging markets shows how much the world
has changed in two decades. Japans nominal gross
domestic product rose 23 percent between 1989 and
2008, while that of the U.S. increased 163 percent,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. During the
same period, Brazils economy grew 278 percent and
Chinas surged 17-fold.
The Nikkei has lost 73 percent since it climbed to
a record 38,915.87 on Dec. 29, 1989, the worst
performance of the worlds major markets.
44,000 Level
On Jan. 3, 1990, the day before asset valuations
began collapsing, the Nikkei newspapers top
headline read, Nikkei Average May Reach 44,000 at
Year-End, citing 20 heads of major companies. The
most promising stock for 1990 was Shimizu Corp.,
the newspaper said. The construction companys
shares have since fallen 87 percent.
As much as 80 percent of Louis Vuitton products
worldwide were bought by Japanese, while
international opera stars sang for fans paying
30,000 yen ($330) a ticket, according to a Nikkei
story dated Dec. 31, 1989.
In July 2008, China overtook the U.S. as Japans
biggest export market, according to Finance
Ministry reports.
Consumer brands such as Unicharm Corp., a diaper
supplier, and cosmetics makers Fancl Corp. and
Shiseido Co. are expected to expand business in
China, said Peter Eadon-Clarke, director of
strategy for Macquarie Group Ltd.s Tokyo brokerage.
Cosmetics companies have decades of research on
Asian skin, Asian make-up, so there is a
competitive advantage in that sense, said
Eadon-Clarke.
Deflation Factor
Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management started a fund in
November investing in Japanese companies benefiting
from Asian demand. The fund owns shares in
Unicharm, Komatsu Ltd., a maker of earth-movers,
and Fanuc Ltd., an industrial robot manufacturer,
according to a company report.
Wages fell in Japan for a 17th-straight month in
October and consumer prices dropped 1.7 percent in
November from a year earlier, according to
government reports.
Deflation has weighed on Japans nominal GDP,
which tends to determine the direction of the stock
market, said Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Managements
Ishigane.
Concerns over growth and earnings made Japans
benchmark gauges the worst performers among the
worlds 40 largest stock markets this year, with
the Nikkei 225 rising 18.5 percent and the Topix
gaining 5.8 percent. The yen averaged 93.65 to the
dollar in 2009, the highest level since currencies
began trading freely in 1971. A strong yen reduces
companies overseas revenue in local terms.
Undervalued Stocks
Shares on the Nikkei trade at 1.4 times book value.
The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3.3 times, while
Brazils Bovespa Index trades at 2.1 times. Both of
those measures have soared more than 70 percent in
2009.
If I had 5 trillion yen, Id spend it all on
Japanese stocks, said Atsuto Sawakami, chief
executive officer of Sawakami Asset Management
Inc., which manages the equivalent of $2.3 billion
in Tokyo. Theyre undervalued.
Of the Nikkei 225 members, Honda Motor Co. posted
the biggest gain since December 1989 with a 240
percent advance, followed by Canon Inc. and
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co.
In the 1980s, Japanese snapped up overseas assets
ranging from New York Citys Rockefeller Center to
Vincent Van Goghs Sunflowers painting. Yoshihiro
Ito, 66-year-old senior strategist at Tokyo-based
Okasan Asset Management Co., recalled that people
bought any asset they could, from stocks to golf-
club memberships because prices were soaring.
I got a golf club membership for 900,000 yen in
1981, and a broker offered 11.7 million yen for it
in 1989, said Ito. I had an illusion it would
rise further and didnt expect the price would
later fall to a mere 150,000 yen. Now, I dont know
how much its worth, nor do I go to the club
anymore because its too far.
To contact the reporters for this story: Masaki
Kondo in Tokyo at