CBOT TYH6/M6 spread update: now 4.25/4.50 mkt, vs
3.5 close
TYH6/M6 spread is richening further today.This is
especially int
-eresting since Nov 12 repo to 31 March is trading
close to 4%so
not in the least special. If term repo were to
rise a bit more,
then we would have a negative carry situation,
which would warra
-nt early delivery of the Nov 12 into the TYH6
contract. 1st not
-ice day is Tues 28 Feb & 1st delivery day is Wed 1
March.So far
the TYH6/M6 spread has risen despite the large
combined spec &
hedge net long of 187.6K (as of last Tues 14 Feb) &
the relative
-ly high repo rate. Continue to think that the
technical situati
-on with the Nov 12 (guess $5-6bio float) & Fed
SOMA holding
only $236mio can make the TYH6/M6 spread widen
further. Jim Lee