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Wed, 03 Sep 2008
More of Dorfmanfrom the Kirk Report--Thanks
The Robot screen contains low P/E outliers. It calls our attention to some of the very cheapest stocks in the market, in the bottom percentile of price/earnings ratios. It screens out stocks that have excessive debt. From this screen we recently bought Om Group (OMG), the largest U.S. dealer in cobalt. It also deals in metal powers. The stock is selling for less than book value and less than six times earnings. We also bought some Cal-Maine Foods (CALM). It produces and sells eggs. Now that some of the crazier diet fads seem to be receding, I figure that eggs can rebound a little bit as part of a well-rounded diet for most Americans. The stock sells for 6 times earnings. The Bunny screen, or Growth at a Low Price, looks for stocks with a five-year historical earnings growth rate of 25% or better, and a current price/earnings ratio of 12 or less. Among those, the screen selects the five with the highest growth rates and the five with the lowest P/E. OM Group has made an appearance on this screen too. The Casualty List is simply a list I used to write about each quarter containing stocks that are down a lot, and that I think have rebound potential. One stock that we’ve bought this year is Ceradyne (CRDN), which makes bullet-resistant armor and advanced technical ceramics. It was down more than 30% in the first quarter. Kirk: Are there any stocks on these screens that you're particularly interested in right now? Dorfman: There are a few we’re looking at. From the Bunny screen we are intrigued by Western Digital (WDC) & ConocoPhillips (COP). My friend and mentor David Dreman owns a lot of ConocoPhillips (COP). By the way, Goldman Sachs (GS), which we own in the fund, just missed the cut on the latest Bunny screen. I want to learn about Insight Enterprises (NSIT), a technology company that shows up on the Robot screen right now. Kirk: Looking over the most recent SEC filings for your fund, I see some familiar stocks like Berkshire Hathaway, Bear Stearns, Autoliv, Apache, Goldman Sachs, Kinetic Concepts, Nam Tai, Rofin Sinar, Schnitzer Steel, etc. Can you talk about some stocks that you've sold recently? Dorfman: We trimmed two of our energy holdings, Apache (APA) and Devon Energy (DVN), at mid-year, to keep them from being too large a percentage of the fund. Also, they had accelerated very fast in the first half of the year. Apache, for example, rose more than 29% in the first half. Since then it has fallen nearly 18%. Now that we’ve had an energy correction in July and August, I think it’s a good time for people to buy again. By the same token, we did some mid-year trimming in two of our metals stocks, Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) and Commercial Metals (CMC). Again, that proved propitious. And again, in July and August we wished we had sold more. But you can’t be too fine or too cute with these things. Recently I sold my holding in MB Financial (MBFI), a Chicago bank. It’s price/earnings ratio has crept up to 17, and there has been a little selling by insiders. In addition, the stock hasn’t been acting well. It’s down about 19% in the past 12 months. I still own other banks in the fund – Cullen/Frost Bankers and Banco Latinoamericano. Kirk: I know your strategy is to focus on low- expectation stocks. In you opinion, looking ahead with a one year time frame, where should long-term value investors be focusing their attention as far as sectors go? Dorfman: I think there are big bargains now in the financial sector and the pharmaceutical sector. Many pharmaceutical stocks have declined five years in a row. These are companies that make innovative products that save people’s lives. And yet they sell for multiples comparable to those of the tobacco stocks
Posted 06:18

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