Howard Simmons of TSC on the big gold merger and the AMEX unhedged gold index.
Aaron, the gold miners have been underperforming
the gains in bullion since April 2002; this has
been true using both the Philadelphia Gold &
Silver index (XAU) and the AMEX Gold Bugs index
(HUI). The latter includes only companies which
do no long-term gold sales.
Collectively, investors have been unwilling to
reward the miners with higher share prices;
whether this is fear of gold's rise being
unsustainable, fear of impending interest rates
hikes, fear of declining inflation or fear of a
rising dollar is immaterial. You simply would
have been better off buying bullion in any
representation than mining stocks.
The merger news means a large industry player
sees consolidation as a cheap way of buying
bullion. A parallel to this would be British
Petroleum's acquisition of Arco in the late
1990s. That turned out to be a brilliant piece of
market timing.
Of course, other oil industry mergers have
occurred at price peaks: Think DuPont's ill-timed
acquisition of Conoco in the early 1980s.
I lean toward Barrick making a well-timed move in
its bid for Placer Dome. Even if gold falls, they
have a margin for safety and can close high-cost
mines first.