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Mon, 31 Oct 2005
Howard Simmons of TSC on the big gold merger and the AMEX unhedged gold index.
Aaron, the gold miners have been underperforming the gains in bullion since April 2002; this has been true using both the Philadelphia Gold & Silver index (XAU) and the AMEX Gold Bugs index (HUI). The latter includes only companies which do no long-term gold sales. Collectively, investors have been unwilling to reward the miners with higher share prices; whether this is fear of gold's rise being unsustainable, fear of impending interest rates hikes, fear of declining inflation or fear of a rising dollar is immaterial. You simply would have been better off buying bullion in any representation than mining stocks. The merger news means a large industry player sees consolidation as a cheap way of buying bullion. A parallel to this would be British Petroleum's acquisition of Arco in the late 1990s. That turned out to be a brilliant piece of market timing. Of course, other oil industry mergers have occurred at price peaks: Think DuPont's ill-timed acquisition of Conoco in the early 1980s. I lean toward Barrick making a well-timed move in its bid for Placer Dome. Even if gold falls, they have a margin for safety and can close high-cost mines first.
Posted 16:42

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