s we enter the era of world inflation courtesy of
major central banks de-basing their currencies like
no tomorrow (the FED and ECB being the worst of the
two, though the latter stands on much stronger
economic footing), it is imperative one's portfolio
be comprised of those equities which will outpace
or at least keep up with inflation. This is most
efficiently done in my opinion by being overweight
commodity equities as well as international
consumer durables, some technology and
infrastructure. I am particularly fond of those
commodities that serve as inflationary hedges and
those with supply-demand disconnects.
1) Silver Wheaton (SLW) - I have talked multiple
times about this extremely dynamic business model
and the transformational year 2009 has been for the
future of this company. Management continues to
execute deals and acquire a diversified group of
royalty streams at bargain basement prices. Not
only will they be the lowest cost producer (under
$4.00/oz) but they will also become one of the
world's largest producers (peak production of 50m
oz per annum assuming 2 development projects come
online within the next 5 years or another
acquisition which they have made crystal clear in
the most recent conference call). This is the best
inflationary hedge in my opinion as they pay no
income tax (has made arrangements with the Canadian
government to either reinvest all excess profits or
pay them out as dividends). That being said in one
or two more years, these royalty streams will sell
for a much bigger premium relative to today. This
means a payout ratio of 75-85% will likely be in
place by 2015 or so.
2) Suncor (SU) - I think Suncor's brilliant
acquisition of Petro-Canada (PCZ) will eventually
make it one of the largest oil companies in the
world. This has to do with the misunderstood future
implications of the oil sands. Suncor will become
one of the largest oil sands producers in addition
to having both up-stream and down-stream business
segments.
3) Philip Morris Int'l (PM) - Far and away an ideal
core holding in any portfolio in any economic
environment. It has a rare combination of
high-single digit/low double digit long term
growth, high payout ratio and yield, best of breed
management, diversified revenue stream (in terms of
currencies around the world) and whose product has
addictive properties. They will be able to pay down
long term debt in depreciated dollars as their
income stream will soon be comprised of much
stronger currencies.
4) Potash (POT) - Though most market players are
bearish on this very important fertilizer, Potash
has a Price vs. Value disconnect and will continue
to play an important role as provider of the ideal
fertilizer (with several caveats depending on the
crop) as well as the many byproducts extracted. No
substantial potash mine has been discovered in
quite some time (barring Potash one's potential
gem) as it mainly grows in Canada and Russia.
5) Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) - This turnaround
story has impressed me, which transformed them from
a financially questionable entity to a free cash
flow machine, starting in Q4 (drastically declining
cash coast and little capital requirements). They
are a diversified silver miner (geographically
speaking), have a nice mixture of gold and silver -
200-220k oz of gold in 2011 and 30m oz of silver.
They have 3 flagship mines coming online (though
one is in Bolivia), which should make this
overlooked miner a good investment.
6) Jaguar Mining (JAG) or Yamana (AUY) for the more
conservative investor - These are the two best ways
to play South America (Brazil, Argentina, Chile) in
my opinion. Yamana has put together a very nice
group of producing assets, advanced stage and
development stage pipeline projects. They were
built via a massive wave of acquisitions a few
years back and management has shown their
understanding of the macro-economic environment as
Yamana is at the beginning of their growth spurt
from 1m oz to 2m oz per year by 2013-2014. But I
tend to favor Jaguar Mining as they boast a much
more lucrative valuation, growth profile and have
showed their ability to execute their objectives.
They have a good track record of steady sequential
production growth which will soon be kicked in to
high gear as they bring on a new mine online, ramp
up existing producing assets and finish their
expansion projects. Growth will jump from 165k oz
in 2009E to 700k+ by 2014.
7) Pengrowth (PGH) - A great Canadian oil trust
play with an undervalued valuation, high long term
growth and well as a lucrative dividend. Though
they will also lose their tax status in 2011, the
long term fundamentals of oil combined with
inflation should move black gold near or past its
record highs over the next 2-5 years. These trusts
(Enerplus (ERP), Baytex, Pennwest (PWE)) aren't
going unnoticed by the rest of the world as China
has made a bid for harvest energy trust. So along
with high leverage to oil, high long term growth,
high dividend yield and a potential buyout target,
Pengrowth is worth taking a look at.
8) BHP Billiton (BHP) - Though already a mega-cap,
BHP has many catalysts in the near and distant
future. Near term catalysts include large gold,
silver, copper and a vast array of other base
metals. They also have a large contract to begin
exporting uranium to China, starting in 2010 and
likely to extend for many years to come. They have
also, like many other (including myself) realized
the potential potash holds for the future and have
acquired a potash mine in Canada. Being the
worldwide supplier of so many commodities entering
the next leg of the commodity bull market while the
inflation tsunami slowly takes hold makes BHP a
great candidate for anyone's portfolio - most
notably those who are more risk averse but want
some exposure to those commodities mentioned above.
9) The ETN RJA (RJA) (Replication Of Jim Rogers
Agriculture Index) is one, if not the best, way to
play agriculture in general, excluding futures. The
top holdings happen to be my favorite (perhaps I'm
a bit biased because of this), which include Wheat,
Corn, Soybeans, Cotton and several other. Wheat has
a production-consumption gap that has been
narrowing for over a decade and will likely be
demanded in higher quantities as the standard of
living continues to increase in the emerging
countries (BRIC) and the ones that will come after
that.
10) The tenth should be comprised of a combination
of cash (for opportunities that may come along) and
hedges (such as put options on an oil index, mining
index or call options on the double inverse of the
Dow or S&P).